Oklahoma – Kansas State Free Pick with Analysis

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Oklahoma

vs.

Kansas State

College Football

Free Pick

10/21/17

A lot of people thought Oklahoma would come out firing against Texas after a loss, but the Sooners had trouble closing the Game and failed to cover last week. On the road once again, Oklahoma has a more favorable matchup against a team that hasn’t figured out how to win just yet. The Sooners were early -12.5 point road favorites against Kansas State (as seen at 5Dimes Sportsbook).

Even with how shaky Oklahoma has looked in recent weeks, it’ll be hard to go with Kansas State in this matchup. The Wildcats have struggled in Big 12 play, most recently scoring just six points against TCU. They competed at Texas, but overall, this team hasn’t done anything all that well. As for the Sooners, they haven’t covered in their last three and have given little hope to bettors.

It’s possible this year’s Game goes the same as 2016’s when Oklahoma won easily 38-17. Baker Mayfield threw for 346 yards and Four touchdowns, while its defense limited anything K State could do, especially after getting out to an early lead. If Oklahoma can get out to another early lead, the prospects of Kansas State coming back and pulling out an upset are slim.

The biggest reason for K State’s six points last week was Alex Delton getting his first career start at quarterback. The sophomore completed just 11-of-29 passes for 146 yards in place of Jesse Ertz. He could have more success against this OU defense, but betting on Delton after his recent performance will take a lot of cOurage. Delton is a normal mobile QB under Bill Snyder and that showed up against Texas (79 yards, 2 TDs), but that’ll still be hard to bet on. The Sooners actually have a decent run defense as it’s their passing defense that’s had more issues. It was the same case last year and that’s a big part to why Oklahoma dominated this matchup. Running back Alex Barnes got just Four carries last week so he’s definitely not something to count on either. Early in the week, Ertz remained doubtful to play with a knee injury.

On the other side, K State usually has one of the better defenses in the conference, but that’s not saying much. This is still a unit that will give up points and not do enough to get wins with a mediocre offense. While the Sooners haven’t looked great as a team in recent Games, the offense is still one of the best in the country.

Baker Mayfield is still a major player in the Heisman hunt, completing 72.7% of his passes to go with 17 touchdowns and only one interception. With a disposal of able targets in Mark Andrews, CeeDee LAmb and Jeff Badet, he’s reached 300 passing yards in five of six Games. Something that’s helped even more in recent Games has been the production of freshman running back Trey Sermon, who has 399 total yards (334 rushing) in the last three contests.

If the Wildcats can’t stop this offense from getting out to a quick lead, this could be over before halftime unless Delton shows something at quarterback that he hasn’t displayed yet. The Sooners are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 overall, while the Wildcats are 0-3-1 ATS in their last Four overall. The over has hit in seven of the last nine meetings between these teams with the road team at 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16.

Our Pick – Kansas St +14