Oklahoma St – WVA Point Spread Winner

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Oklahoma State

vs.

West Virginia

College Football

Free Pick

10/28/17

Last week’s win at Texas wasn’t impressive, but Oklahoma State still come into this with just one loss. The problem is that West Virginia isn’t a free win. For that matter, neither is Oklahoma nor Iowa State, its next two opponents. With this one against West Virginia expected to be much different than the Texas Game, the Cowboys were -8 point road favorites early in the week at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

Once again, a spread of more than seven points will be hard to take for OK State backers. The Cowboys have a great offense, but it’s important to remember how bad their defense is, no matter how last week went in a 13-10 overtime win. This Game could be similar to the 41-34 win at Texas Tech a few weeks ago because West Virginia has the offense to keep up. The Mountaineers defense has fallen apart this season, but their offense has gotten them to five wins, taking down Texas Tech and Baylor the last two weeks.

Oklahoma State won this matchup 37-20 last year even though WVU came in as the No. 10 team in the country. But this is a different West Virginia team that’s more offense-based, similar to most teams in the Big 12. Quarterback Will Grier has been an absolute stud for the Mountaineers having thrown for at least 300 yards in every Game this season to go with 26 touchdowns and only five picks. That ability combined with Justin Crawford rushing for 6.1 yards per carry has been enough to keep this team competitive no matter the opponent. That includes a couple seven-point losses to Virginia Tech and TCU, both of whom have better defenses than OK State.

The only way for OK State to cover will be to Score50-plus points. And even if that happens, that may not guarantee a cover because Grier could easily match that point total. Betting on this OK State defense usually isn’t a good idea and that’s the case here. The other end is why this spread is above a touchdown.

Mason Rudolph actually has worse numbers than Grier, completing roughly the same amount of passes (66.5%) to go with 19 touchdowns and Four interceptions (plus six rushing TDs). His overall numbers – and Heisman chances – took a hit after not having a touchdown against the Longhorns last week. Rudolph also has better receivers with James Washington (914 yards, 6 TDs) one of the best in the nation at catching the ball. The Pokes have kept a balanced offense that won them last week with Justice Hill rushing for 100-plus yards in the last Four Games on 5.4 yards per carry.

Oklahoma State is the logical route to go here because its offense has gotten more national attention, but there’s no reason Grier and company can’t keep this Scoreclose, especially at home. The interesting part is that this line shot up after opening closer to seven points for OK State.

The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last five Big 12 Games, but 6-1 ATS in their last seven following an ATS loss. The Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last five following an ATS loss, but 6-14 vs. a team with a winning record. The under has surprisingly hit in the last Four meetings between these schools.

Our Pick – Oklahoma St -7 -115