Penn State
vs.
Michigan State
College Football
Free Pick
11/4/17
Penn State had its heart torn out in last week’s loss to Ohio State and now have to go back on the road to East LAnsing. While the opponent is a bit weaker, that doesn’t make this Game a freebie. The Nittany Lions opened as only -7.5 point favorites at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
As the Nittany Lions were letting Ohio State come back late against them, Michigan State did the same at Northwestern. The Spartans scored a late touchdown to send the Game into overtime, but couldn’t hang on, losing in the third extra period. It’s hard to look at this matchup from a year ago, as it was the season finale for MSU in a three-win season. The Spartans actually led at half 12-10 before allowing the next 35 points.
Michigan State has solid defensive numbers, although was exploited a bit late against Northwestern. If Penn State can build off that, it can easily reach 40 points again. But building off that isn’t a guarantee, especially against a defense that excels against the rush. Saquon Barkley is what makes this offense go with 801 rushing yards and nine touchdowns as well as 471 receiving yards on 36 receptions. Quarterback Trace McSorley has also been solid on the ground with 303 yards and eight touchdowns. But if MSU’s defense can limit what those guys do rushing the ball, that may be enough to keep this Game competitive. McSorley hasn’t been asked to pass much this season and when he has, he’s been mediocre at best. His numbers are solid, completing 65.9% of his passes for 16 touchdowns, but that’s in a secondary role to the ground Game.
The other end has just as interesting of matchup after the Nittany Lions were gouged by J.T. Barrett last week. This was a defense that hadn’t allowed more than 19 points in a Game, but that all disappeared once Barrett got going. Michigan State’s offense isn’t very good, but with its backs against the wall, has usually done enough to at least move the ball.
As a sophomore quarterback, Brian Lewerke has looked great at times, but others like an inexperienced passer. With 14 touchdowns and only Four picks, he’s done enough to get MSU to six wins, double what the team had a year ago. Lewerke will be huge in this Game after tossing for 445 yards and Four touchdowns against Northwestern last week. While he’s not J.T. Barrett, if he can find success through the air, that will be enough to keep this Game close. That said, the Spartans still want to run the ball as much as possible after going nowhere against the Wildcats. If PSU can stop the run, that will force Lewerke to throw a ton, which has had mixed so far.
No matter the matchup, the Spartans have kept every Game competitive, whether winning or losing. Even though they lost by 20 to Notre Dame, the final Scorewas more a result of turnovers as MSU actually outgained the Irish. Still, it’s going to be extremely difficult to bet against Penn State.
The Nittany Lions are 16-3-2 ATS in their last 21 Games and 9-1-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Spartans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home Games and have covered in their last Four following an ATS loss. The over is 14-3-1 in the last 18 meetings between these teams while the favorite has covered in the last six.
Penn St/Mich St UNDER 47.5