Quick LAne Bowl
Northern Illinois
vs.
Duke
12/26/17
Duke was headed for better things at the beginning of the season, but a six-Game losing streak changed that. At the least, the Blue Devils won their final two to become bowl eligible and get to travel to Detroit to take on Northern Illinois for the Quicken LAne Bowl. The Blue Devils were early -5 point favorites at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
Duke thought it was going to have a great season, beating Northwestern, Baylor and UNC in the first month, but that quickly dissipated as competition picked up. Yet, even against weaker teams, the Blue Devils still fell to Pitt and Army. However, coach David Cutcliffe got his team motivated enough to finish with two upsets, which landed them here (GT, Wake).
It was a bit of a different situation for Northern Illinois, which was a strong team throughout the season without any bad losses. A road win at Nebraska early was nice, while their only MAC losses came on the road against teams that finished above them in the standings. The Huskies lost 23-20 to Boston College in the season opener and that’s a comparable team to Duke.
The Huskies have won through defense all season, although that’s mostly due to playing in the MAC. They held down weaker opponents, but also struggled against any bowl-eligible teams and that showed up in the finale against Central Michigan in a 31-24 loss. Their strength is stopping the run, allowing just 2.8 yards per carry.
That’s not good news for Duke because quarterback Daniel Jones hasn’t exactly been efficient in the air, tossing 12 touchdowns and 11 picks. He’s been worse in every category from his freshman season, which is surprising. This offense wants to run the ball and if that doesn’t work, it could mean trouble. Shaun Wilson and Brittain Brown lead the way, both averaging more than five yards per carry, while Jones has 432 rushing yards himself. Duke won its final couple Games by running well and playing better defense. Will that carry over to the bowl Game?
The good news is that NIU isn’t much better offensively, despite scoring 30 points per Game. against any bigger team or decent defense, this group did little. A lot of their points came from blowouts against weaker MAC teams. Freshman quarterback Marcus Childers (15 TDs, 5 INTs) looked solid after being named starter in October, but 14 of his touchdowns came against teams not playing in a bowl Game. against Toledo and Central, he managed one touchdown and Four interceptions, while getting little on the ground. Duke’s defense really picked it up in the final two Games against decent offenses and if that same group shows up, it will be difficult for NIU to move the ball. The Huskies will try and feed running back Jordan Huff plenty, but if that doesn’t work, they may not reach 20 points.
Duke has the chance to close the season on a high note, although Cutcliffe seems to coach better with his back against the wall. The Blue Devils are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 non-Conference Games, while the Huskies are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six against the ACC, but haven’t covered in their last Four bowl Games.
Our Pick – Duke -5.5