Texas Tech
vs.
Oklahoma
College Football
Free Pick
10/28/17
Texas Tech was ranked two weeks ago, but those thoughts are long gone coming into this Game losing two straight. Oklahoma is in need of an easy win before taking on OK State and TCU in back-to-back weeks. The Sooners were large -20.5 point home favorites early in the week at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
If Oklahoma has trouble in this Game, the chance of them escaping the rest of the season without a loss seems unlikely. The Sooners haven’t blown anyone out in Big 12 play yet and that’s mostly due to an ineffective defense. Unfortunately, an ineffective defense is exactly what will allow Texas Tech to stay competitive in this Game.
On the other side of that, the Red Raiders just scored 13 points against Iowa State and lost by 11 to West Virginia the previous week. Their only win in Conference play was against lowly Kansas so it’s still unclear what kind of team Texas Tech is. They’ll Scorepoints and play bad defense, but to what level?
This has all the makings of another high-scoring affair, as long as Texas Tech lives up to its end of the bargain. Last year’s incredible 66-59 Game can’t be forgotten in which neither team played defense and each side scored double digits in every quarter. Oklahoma’s defense is at that same level as seen in recent outings so the opportunity will be there for the Red Raiders.
Quarterback Nic Shimonek has been solid, but clearly isn’t as productive as Patrick Mahomes was. Shimonek is completing more than 70 percent of his passes, but didn’t throw a touchdown last week. To try and keep this Game lower scoring, the Red Raiders will turn to the ground Game more than usual with Justin Stockton and Tre King, both of whom average more than 5.5 yards per carry. If they can establish a running attack, that could be enough to keep this Game within 20 points. Even then, Shimonek has the arm to cover late, especially given that Oklahoma hasn’t won a Big 12 Game by more than seven points.
The Sooners could easily Score60 points in this Game again as this is another Texas Tech defense that can’t stop anyone, giving up close to 300 passing yards per Game. Baker Mayfield is still fighting for the Heisman and he’s set to add to those numbers in this one. He’s completing 73.8% of his passes to go with 19 touchdowns and only two interceptions. Reaching 400 yards and a few scores should be in sight for him. The Sooners also have a solid ground Game between a trio of backs, but this will be Mayfield’s Game.
A lot of points are expected, which is why the over/under is a few points above 70. Texas Tech can cover as long as the offense rebounds from last week’s performance and there’s no reason to believe in the Oklahoma defense right now. The Red Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road Games and 5-1 ATS in their last six following an ATS loss. The Sooners are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home Games, but haven’t covered in their last Four overall.
Our Pick – Texas Tech +20