Michigan State
vs.
Arizona State
College Football
Pick
9/8/18
The hype in Arizona State is real after the Sun Devils routed UTSA 49-7 in Herm Edwards’s debut as head coach. It was almost the opposite for Michigan State as it struggled to separate from Utah State and only managed a 38-31 win after a late touchdown. Now in the Arizona heat, the Spartans have a bigger test on their hands and that’s seen in the line. The Spartans are -5.5 point road favorites with an over/under of 55 points at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
This wasn’t expected to be a huge worry for Michigan State entering the season, but that changed when it struggled to beat Utah State. The Spartans have a clear edge on both sides of the field, but their pass defense remains an issue after giving up 319 yards to the USU quarterback. Going against Manny Wilkins and ASU won’t help that aspect, though the Sun Devils took a run-first approach in their first Game and went for 266 yards on 7.4 yards per carry. That probably won’t happen against the dominant MSU defensive front after it held the Aggies to only one yard per carry. But if the Sun Devils can’t run the ball, Wilkins is a three-year starter and has a playmaker to work with in wide receiver N’Keal Harry. As long as that passing Game works, they should move the ball just fine, similar to Utah State last week.
The other side may be the bigger question for these teams as the Sun Devils looked good in their first Game, but it came against a C-USA team with a new quarterback. ASU came into the year with three new starters on defense and that could show in this Game.
The Spartans still have a solid, all-around offense and that could be what wins them this Game. Brian Lewerke continues to make a couple mistakes every contest, but he also always has a big play or two in him and isn’t afraid to run the ball. MSU will likely focus on its ground Game between LJ SCott and Connor Heyward and it’s unknown if ASU will be able to stop it. The Sun Devils held UTSA to three rushing yards with sacks included, but that has to be taken with a grain of salt. The Spartans return almost every relevant piece on the offensive side and they could be set for 40 points if all goes right.
That said, it’s a wonder why the over/under is so low with both of these teams having above average offenses. MSU has questions in the secondary, while ASU is still an unknown despite an opening win. To put things in perspective for ASU’s defense, UTSA failed to Scoredouble-digits in three of its final Four Games of 2017 and only returned three starters from that group. The Spartans are the opposite and should Scoreconsistently, even in the heat.
The Spartans are 1-5 ATS in their last six road Games against a team with a winning home record, but 6-1 ATS in their last seven following an ATS loss. The Sun Devils are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 home Games and 1-5 ATS in their last six non-Conference Games.
Our Pick – Arizona State +6