The hype is getting real for Washington State with only one more Game until it hosts Washington in the season-deciding Apple Cup. Of course, the Cougars aren’t a team that can look past anyone, especially one like Arizona coming off a bye week and back-to-back wins. The Cougars were still -9.5 point home favorites with an over/under of 62.5 as of Wednesday at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
Arizona was pretty bad at the beginning of the season, but it oddly still has a chance to win the Pac-12 South with three Conference losses. Its most impressive win was undoubtedly the 44-15 romp over Oregon and then it followed that by beating Colorado 42-34. As for Wazzu, it had no issues disposing of Colorado last weekend, but following that trip is never easy even if this one is at home.
It was a much different Game when these teams met last year as Arizona was running over every opponent with the introduction of Khalil Tate, who ran for 146 of the team’s 310 rushing yards. And while Washington State threw for 602 yards, it wasn’t enough because of Four interceptions thrown.
The good news for the Cougars is that new quarterback Gardner Minshew has been fairly safe with the ball throwing for 29 touchdowns and only seven picks. He’s basically a lock to throw for 300 yards and while he has only three touchdowns in the last two Games, this matchup could change that because the Wildcats are allowing 250 passing yards per Game and the only team they beat on the road was Oregon State. Assuming Minshew will hit his season averages, Wazzu should be headed for at least 30 points if all goes well.
But the opportunity to cover will be there for Arizona as it’s scored 86 points in the last two Games. Washington State is in this spot because of defense allowing 22.1 points per Game and that’s going to be the key battle in this matchup after Arizona dropped 58 points in the last meeting.
Tate simply isn’t the same dynamic quarterback in the new offense, but he has had some big performance and threw for 350 yards against Colorado last time out. The bigger thing for the Wildcats will be the ground Game and that’s where J.J. Taylor comes in as he has 70 rushes for 404 yards in the last two Games. If Arizona can do that against a defense that’s allowing 125 rushing yards per contest, that’d be huge in not only getting the cover, but also going for the upset. But again, on the flipside, the Wildcats haven’t played as well on the road and were blown out 42-10 against the only relevant Pac-12 team they traveled to.
The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five Games overall, but 4-18 ATS in their last 18 on the road. The Cougars are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home Games and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 overall. The over has hit in the last Four meetings between these schools and the underdog is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
Arizona ATS Trends
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Conference Games
Arizona is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road Games vs a team with a winning home record
Arizona is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 Games following a ATS win
Arizona is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Games in November
Arizona is 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road Games
Arizona is 6-14 ATS in their last 20 Games as an underdog
Arizona is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 Games as an underdog of 3 5-10 0
Arizona is 7-19 ATS in their last 26 Games as a road underdog
Arizona is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Games on turf
Washington State ATS Trends
Washington State is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Conference Games
Washington State is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 Games as a favorite
Washington State is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home Games
Washington State is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Games following a win
Washington State is 22-7 ATS in their last 29 Games following a ATS win
Washington State is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 Games overall
Washington State is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Games as a home favorite
Washington State is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Games on turf
Our Pick – Washington State -9.5