Auburn
at
Georgia
NCAAF Pick
ATS Trends
11/10/18
The Auburn-Georgia rematch is finally here and it could easily go the same way as last year’s SEC title Game. Georgia and Alabama are already set to meet in this year’s title Game, but the Bulldogs still can’t afford to lose another Game before then if it wants a shot at the College Football Playoff. They were -14 point home favorites with an over/under of 50 as of Wednesday at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
Last year’s Games were completely different between these teams as Auburn won 40-17 during the regular season and then Georgia won 28-7 en route to making the CFP. Given how the year has gone, this one is set to be more like the title Game as the Bulldogs held Auburn to just 259 total yards. Auburn is coming off a nice win against Texas A&M, but this team still only has one true road win and it came at Ole Miss, while it also lost at home to Tennessee. The offense hasn’t been good enough and facing a Georgia defense that’s allowing 16.4 points per Game, could have trouble putting more than 14 points on the board.
Auburn quarterback Jarrett Stidham has worse numbers overall this season, completing just 60.6% of his passes on 7.40 yards per attempt and only 10 touchdowns. It’s not working for him and it doesn’t help that the ground Game is averaging only 4.2 yards per carry. Top running back JaTarvious Whitlow is dealing with a leg injury, which doesn’t help, and the offense managed just 19 rushing yards in the late win against A&M last weekend. If the Tigers only get 19 rushing yards again, it’s hard to see them staying competitive on the road against this defense.
The question will be what Auburn’s defense can do, as that’s still been a stout unit allowing only 17.3 points per Game. It’s not a completely dominant defense, but if it holds Georgia in the 20-point range, that’d still be enough to cover.
Georgia’s offense isn’t electric, but it keeps churning out points against everyone other than LSU. That’s kind of how the group is built with both running backs Elijah Holyfield and D’Andre Swift at more than 600 rushing yards and six yards per carry. Those two move the chains and that opens up the field for Jake Fromm to do the rest. Fromm doesn’t pass often and that’s why he only has 17 touchdowns, but he’s only had issues in the LSU Game and is still completing 9.18 yards per attempt. In the last meeting between these teams, that’s kind of how the Game went for Georgia as it ran for 238 yards and Fromm did the rest, completing 16-of-22 passes for 183 yards and two touchdowns. Of course, that was still a close Game most of the way until two Fourth-quarter touchdowns for Georgia. But betting on Auburn means betting on them on the road and that’s a hard thing to do given how it’s played this season.
The Tigers are 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their last five following an ATS win. The Bulldogs are 8-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Conference Games. The favorite is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings and Georgia has covered in the last five between them played in Athens. As of note, none of the previous six spreads have been more than 10 points with five of those at three points or less.
Additional ATS Trends
Georgia
Georgia is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Conference Games.
Georgia is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 Games as a favorite.
Georgia is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home Games.
Georgia is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Games following a straight up win.
Georgia is 8-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Georgia is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home Games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Georgia is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 Games overall.
Georgia is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 Games on grass.
Auburn
Auburn is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Games following a straight up win.
Auburn is 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Auburn is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Games in November.
Auburn is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games as an underdog of 10.5+
Auburn is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Games as a road underdog.
Our Pick – Auburn +14