Boston College at Florida State ATS Trends Free CFB Pick

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11/17/18

 

There are a few things going against Boston College in this Game and none of them have anything to do with Florida State, who has to beat two ranked teams if it wants to guarantee a bowl. The Eagles were still slight -1.5 point road favorites with an over/under of 48.5 as of Wednesday at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

In addition to losing starting quarterback Anthony Brown on the first possession against Clemson last week, top running back AJ Dillon is still dealing with a nagging ankle injury. Yet through it all, the Eagles still only lost 27-7 to Clemson, which is better than most can say, especially Florida State. The Seminoles just want the season to end, giving up a minimum of 42 points in their last three Games, while scoring an average of 17. If they forget about those terrible losses, they may have a legit shot against a beat up BC team and that’s seen in the spread, but there’s a possibility things get worse before they get better.

FSU’s defense can be good as seen in its last win against Wake Forest (38-17), but that’s a hard thing to bet on. The ‘Noles are still giving up 404 yards and 31.6 points per Game and were trounced 35-3 in this matchup last year. If BC can run for 241 yards again, quarterback won’t matter considering they had just 88 passing yards in that win.

If Brown can’t return from an abdominal injury, EJ Perry would likely start at quarterback and while he didn’t do much against Clemson, the FSU defense is not close to the same level. He should at least move the chains with former wide receiver Ben Glines, who is the backup running back. Glines has started a few Games this year for Dillon and has done enough averaging 5.6 yards per carry for 376 yards. No matter who starts for the Eagles, they’ll run their usual offense that focuses on their offensive line dominating the opponent and there’s little reason to trust FSU in that aspect.

For the Seminoles to cover, they’ll need more out of the offense and that group has been equally inconsistent. BC has a solid defense allowing 24.4 points per Game and considering it just stopped Clemson to 27, there’s a decent chance it can hold FSU to 20 points or less.

It doesn’t help that head coach Willie Taggart is making it worse for himself by how he’s dealing with the quarterback situation. Deondre Francois hasn’t been good this year while James Blackman looked much better two weeks ago with Four touchdowns in the lost to NC State. But surprisingly, Francois returned from injury and Blackman didn’t play against Notre Dame last weekend. Nothing is working for Francois, who was a possible Heisman candidate ahead of the 2017 season and then he tore his ACL in the opener. This season, he has just 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions on 6.88 yards per attempt. He’s getting sacked a ton and neither Cam Akers nor Jacques Patrick has a 100-yard rushing Game all season. In fact, the Seminoles are averaging a paltry 2.5 yards per carry as a team, which doesn’t combine well with Francois’s inconsistent arm. Up against Wyatt Ray, who has nine sacks, and a BC defense that is fifth in the nation with 15 interceptions, it’ll be hard to back FSU unless Blackman is the surprise starter.

The Eagles are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 Conference Games and 19-7 ATS in their last 26 on the road. The Seminoles are 2-11-2 ATS in their last 15 Conference Games and 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Additional ATS Trends

 

BC ATS Trends

BC is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Games following a loss

BC is 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 Games following a ATS loss

BC is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 Conference Games

BC is 6-1 ATS vs  a team with a losing record

BC is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 Games in November

BC is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road Games

BC is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 Games overall

Florida State ATS Trends

Florida State is 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 Games following a loss

Florida State is 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 Games following a ATS loss

Florida State is 2-11-2 ATS in their last 15 Conference Games

Florida State is 1-5 ATS vs a team with a winning record

Florida State is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Games overall

Our Pick – Boston College -1