This Game doesn’t look like much on the surface, but if Boise State wants any chance at the College Football Playoff, it needs to win and probably by a large margin. The Broncos have hopes of an undefeated season and winning the MWC can only do so much. Oklahoma State has other ideas as a small -3 point home favorite with an over/under of 63.5 at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
This is the first true test for both of these teams as they carved through their first opponents with ease. The Broncos have been slightly more impressive, but only because they won 56-20 at Troy, a team they only beat 24-13 at home last season. Boise has high expectations and knows it needs this Game to make a dent on a national stage.
The biggest difference between these squads will likely be on the defensive side where Boise returned nine starters and should give new OK State quarterback Taylor Cornelius some issues. Cornelius has led the Cowboys to two easy wins, but he already has three interceptions with two of those coming against South Alabama. Now against a defense filled with experience, he could have more trouble, especially if the ground Game runs into any issues. Justice Hill did whatever he wanted in the first two Games en route to 8.1 yards per carry and that’s why OK State had such an easy time. Boise presents a much different challenge with most of the guys back from a group that held Oregon in check in a bowl Game last season. The Pokes are known for having a high-scoring offense, but there remains questions with Cornelius at quarterback and this will be his first true test.
Because of that, it may be hard to put too much support into the home team. On the other end, the Broncos have a balanced offense led by quarterback Brett Rypien in his Fourth year as starter. His numbers don’t stand out after only 16 touchdowns last year, but he’s competent and still had a solid 8.27 yards per attempt. The rushing attack is what makes the offense go behind Alexander Mattison, who looks set to surpass last season’s 1,086 yards and 12 touchdowns. Behind a line that returned Four starters, there’s good reason to believe that group will have success in this Game.
Of course, OK State’s defense may also be improved from last year as it returned seven starters. If that group steps up, the Cowboys may not drop off much overall even if the offense isn’t as good. Boise State is putting all of its eggs in the basket for this Game and betting against them would require faith in Cornelius.
The Broncos have covered in their last Four non-Conference Games, but are 5-11 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Cowboys have had similar success in non-Conference at 7-1 ATS in their last eight. Both teams have trends pointing to the over as it’s 7-1 in OK State’s last eight overall and 4-1 in BSU’s last five on the road.
Our Pick – If you were interested in backing Boise St, the time to do so would have been Monday or Tuesday of this week when you could have had +3.
The Way these two put points on the board, the total looks like a bargain in this one. We’ll go OVER 64.5