Clemson at BC College Football Free Pick – 11/10/18

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Clemson continues to run through the ACC and while this could be one of its tougher Games of the season, Boston College is still a long shot to win, even at home. The Tigers opened as hefty -17.5 point road favorites at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

Clemson is on a roll winning its last Four Games by a ridiculous 240-36 Scoreline. At this point, there’s no reason to bet against them with how things have gone over the last month. Boston College is winning Games and sits behind Clemson in the division with just one Conference loss, but no one else in the Conference is close to the same level as Clemson. Beating Miami by 13 points is nice, but things will be different against the Tigers.

The biggest thing is that the Tigers offense has taken off since Trevor LAwrence became the lone starter and he’s carving up defenses for 18 touchdowns and only three interceptions. Combine that with a ground Game that’s averaging 6.9 yards per carry and not many in the ACC can stop this offense. Travis Etienne is running through everyone with 998 yards and 15 touchdowns on just 116 carries. He had 153 yards on only eight rushes against Louisville last Game. BC has a fine defense allowing 24.1 points and 144 rushing yards per Game, but it hasn’t actually played a top offense all season. No one in the ACC stands out and Purdue did beat the Eagles 30-13 earlier in the year.

In order to cover, the Eagles will likely need to Scorea decent amount of points, but again, they haven’t seen a defense like this. Dropping 38 points on Louisville could easily equate to only 10 points against Clemson. The Eagles don’t have a ton of explosiveness in a run-first offense led by running back AJ Dillon, who averages 5.5 yards per carry and is getting close to 25 touches per Game in the ACC. Quarterback Anthony Brown is mostly a Game manager with just seven passing touchdowns in his last six Games to go with a 57.9% completion rate. This offense is better than a year ago, but it’s still not going to light up the scoreboard against a legit defense. Plus, the 117 points scored against UMass and Holy Cross early in the season are a bit misleading for the group’s overall numbers.

The problem is that Clemson allows 13.3 points and 90.4 rushing yards per contest. When these teams met last year, it was a little more even as Clemson needed 27 points in the Fourth quarter to pull away. That only happened because of two interceptions as Clemson dominated almost every facet of the Game, outrushing BC 342-97. If that happens again, this could easily get away from Boston College early.

The Tigers have covered their last Four overall and are 4-1 ATS in their last five on the road. The Eagles are 9-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 Conference Games. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these schools, while Boston College has covered in Four of the last five.

Our Pick – OVER 57


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