Duke
at
Pitt
College Football
Pointspread Pick
10/27/18
The 5-2 Duke Blue Devils travel to Pittsburgh to take on the 3-4 Pitt Panthers in an ACC clash that could have Conference implications. Duke is just 1-2 in ACC Conference play while the Panthers come in at 2-1 and still very much in the Coastal division hunt. Duke is a road favorite of -2.5 -115 at 5 Dimes Sportsbook with a total of 47.
The betting public has been betting the Blue Devils thus far this week with a market average of 68% of the action. No surprise really, as the public generally doesn’t dig too deep. They see a 5-2 team favored over a 3-4 team and figure that’s enough for them. But it’s worth noting that the Panthers Schedule has been at least a field goal more difficult than that of Duke’s.
Now, the betting public liking a side in a Game, isn’t reason enough to back off if you like the same side. John Q Public will win 50% of the time. That’s 50 winners out of 100. Why throw away 50 winners? The betting public may be on to something in this matchup.
We like to use yards per point to gauge a teams offense and defense. Looking at the defensive yards per point numbers in this matchup, Duke’s ypp number is 18.5. That’s above average and good for 18th in the nation. Pitts defensive number of 13.2 places them at 98th in the nation. So we have a defense that ranks 18th out of 130 teams and one that ranks 98th out of 130 teams. Quite a drop off eh? Remember, the difference in Schedule strength here is less than a field goal.
Things are a little tighter offensively, but Duke still gets the nod. Their offensive yards per point number of 12.9 is good for 45th overall while the Panthers 13.8 has them ranking 66th offensively.
Models attempt to answer questions about opposing teams using a plethora of stats and mathematical equations to arrive at a predicted winner and score. Models also factor Schedule strength into the equation which is extremely important in college sports.
When we run this Game through Our model, we come up with a predicted final score of Duke 28 and Pitt 19. Now, the model doesn’t take into account weather, injuries, motivational factors and other scenarios that can have an impact on the outcome of a Game. There will always be a human factor involved in betting on sports. It’s up to you, (the human) to determine whether there are any factors not see by the model and ultimately up to you to decide whether to pull the trigger on a play.
If you’re interested in getting Our models predictions for every college and NFL Game on the betting board each week, simply visit Our Score Prediction page. Mid season rates are now available.
As for Duke at Pitt, it’s still too early in the week to make a definitive call on this one. However, as of Tuesday, we’ll side with out model and lay the small spot with the superior defensive team. Duke -2.5