Georgia Tech vs. Georgia CFB ATS Trends Free Pick

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Georgia Tech

at

Georgia

ATS Trends

CFB Pick

11/24/18

since losing to LSU, Georgia has carved through its Schedule, winning its last Four Games all by at least 17 points. Georgia Tech has almost been the opposite, winning its last three by 10 points or less against weaker competition. That sums up this matchup with the Bulldogs a -17 point home favorite as of Tuesday with an over/under of 59.5 at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

This matchup could easily go the same as last year’s when Georgia dominated 38-7, holding Tech to 226 total yards, while going for 471 itself. There isn’t much different for the Yellow Jackets outside of averaging half a yard more per carry and that could be due to Schedule. They’ve made it to seven wins because of a weaker ACC Coastal division that has seen Virginia Tech and Miami drop off immensely. However, the same goes for Georgia, as it doesn’t have as good of a defense, allowing 4.1 yards per carry. If Tech can get a little more going with the triple option, that’d at least be huge in getting a cover.

The passing Game remains non-existent for Tech with TaQuon Marshall at quarterback, but that hasn’t mattered with no one being able to stop the triple option. Marshall leads the team with 858 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns with Tobias Oliver (808 yards, 12 TDs), Jordan Mason and Jerry Howard close behind. Still, it’s hard to overlook how this Game went in 2017 as Tech managed a decent 188 rushing yards on 4.1 yards per carry and still was torched. A team like Georgia has the athletes and the talent to capitalize against Tech and that could be what happens again.

Tech’s defense was an issue early in the season and while it still could be, they’ve won Four straight and have held their last five opponents to 28 points or less. Then again, holding teams like UNC and Virginia Tech to 28 points may not be a good thing. Georgia is a different animal, closer to a team like Clemson which Tech lost to 49-21 earlier in the season.

It’s hard to envision GT limiting what the Bulldogs do on the ground as they’re averaging 6.2 yards per carry as a team. The duo of D’Andre Swift and Elijah Holyfield is almost impossible to stop unless you have one of the better defenses in the country. And even if that running Game gets limited, Jake Fromm will do the rest with 9.50 yards per attempt and only five interceptions. 

This matchup comes down to stopping the triple option and if Georgia can do that, it could be an easy cover. Then again, the Bulldogs could be looking ahead to the SEC title Game with the College Football Playoff on the line. But if they show up, the Yellow Jackets will be in trouble.

The Yellow Jackets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven Games overall and 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight road Games against a team with a winning home record. The Bulldogs are 9-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 overall. Georgia is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, but Tech is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings played in Athens and the road team is 17-4-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings.

Our Pick – Georgia -17