Indiana
at
Michigan
ATS Trends
Pick
against the Spread
11/17/18
This is the Game before the big Game for Michigan and that’s the only reason to doubt it as a huge favorite. The Wolverines have dominated their last two at home against Wisconsin and Penn State, so Indiana should be a walk in the park compared to those. They were -28.5 point home favorites with an over/under of 53.5 as of Tuesday at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
Michigan was a much different team last year so it’s hard to put too much into the overtime win it had at Indiana. The Wolverines ran for 271 yards, but John O’Korn was also terrible as he only threw for 58 yards. Indiana’s best chance to cover this Game is if it can Scoreand that will be far from easy after averaging just 2.8 yards per carry in last year’s meeting.
The Hoosiers need one more win to reach a bowl, but this probably won’t be the Game even though they recently stopped a Four-Game losing streak by escaping past Maryland. The offense has been fine, scoring at least 21 points against MSU, OSU and PSU, but that may not be enough. The problem is that Michigan’s defense is better than all of those teams and is one of the best in the nation, allowing a ridiculous 116 passing yards and 12.9 points per Game.
Quarterback Peyton Ramsey completed less than 50 percent of his passes for 178 yards and two interceptions in last year’s matchup and there’s no reason to think he’ll do better. The sophomore quarterback has been as mediocre as it gets, throwing 17 touchdowns compared to 11 picks with his best Game coming at Ohio State, his only 300-yard performance and only Game with a touchdown and no interception. Unfortunately, there won’t be many routes for this team to move the ball if Ramsey can’t complete passes. Freshman running back Stevie SCott is having a great season with 894 yards and eight touchdowns, but expecting 100 yards against the UM front is a stretch unless he can break a long run like Rutgers did last week. Otherwise, the Hoosiers will struggle to top 14 points, similar to every offense Michigan has faced.
On the other end, Michigan is all but guaranteed to Score30 points since Indiana has allowed at least that many points in its last five Games. The Wolverines should be closer to 40 if their running Game does as well as it’s expected. Karan Higdon went off against IU last year and could do so again with 1,005 yards and nine touchdowns to his name this season. The difference is that Michigan has a competent quarterback in Shea Patterson, who is completing 67 percent of his passes for 17 touchdowns and most importantly only three picks. There isn’t much to like about Indiana’s defense that’s allowing 181 rushing yards and 30 points per contest.
But even then, a 40-14 Game would still be a cover for Indiana so blindly backing the Wolverines may not be the best bet. If Ramsey and the offense can find the end zone twice, which it’s done in almost every Game, that could be enough to get the cover.
The Hoosiers are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 Games overall and 1-8 ATS in their last nine road Games. The Wolverines have covered in their last Four at home and are 4-1 ATS in their last five overall. The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these schools and the over is 5-2 in the last seven.
Indiana ATS Trends
Indiana is 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 Conference Games
Indiana is 7-20 ATS in their last 27 Games as a road underdog of 35-100
Indiana is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Games following a ATS win
Indiana is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road Games
Indiana is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 Games as an underdog
Indiana is 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 Games overall
Michigan ATS Trends
Michigan is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 Games following a ATS loss
Michigan is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Conference Games
Michigan is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games as a favorite
Michigan is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home Games
Michigan is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games as a home underdog
Michigan is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games following a win Our Pick – Michigan -28 and OVER 53.5