Indiana
vs.
Ohio State
College Football
Pick
10/6/18
Ohio State is coming off yet another last-minute win against Penn State, but this year its next Game is much more favorable. Indiana has a nice 4-1 record, but not much can be put into that after escaping Rutgers 24-17 last weekend. The Buckeyes are large -25 point home favorites with an over/under of 62.5 as of Tuesday at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
OSU collapsed against Iowa the weekend after beating PSU in 2017, but it’s unlikely that happens again. These teams met in last year’s opener and while Indiana put up a fight in the first half, it didn’t have a chance in the end as Ohio State won 49-21 on the road. The Hoosiers haven’t shown much this season, beating a slew of bad teams and ultimately not having enough against Michigan State after being down 28-7 entering the Fourth quarter. This is a letdown situation for Ohio State, but nothing about the Indiana defense suggests it can stop Dwayne Haskins and company.
The first-year starting quarterback should eat through this defense, already with 19 passing touchdowns and only two picks with a 70.8% completion rate. Combine that with the rushing duo of J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber and the weapons are endless in the Buckeyes offense. They ran for 292 yards in this matchup last year and throw in a more accurate quarterback in Haskins and this offense should reach close to 50 points again. Indiana doesn’t have terrible defensive numbers this season, but a lot of that has to do with Schedule and in its only loss, didn’t look great allowing 35 points to an up-and-down MSU offense.
To cover, the Hoosiers have to match what they did a year ago when Richard LAgow threw for 410 yards. Of course, they still only scored 21 points and ran for 17 yards as a team with sacks included. Nothing from the offense in the first few Games suggests that it will be able to match the 21 points scored last year. Peyton Ramsey has a nice 71 percent completion percentage, but he has five interceptions and is at a poor 6.41 yards per attempt. Those short, quick passes may work against the defenses of Rutgers and Ball State, but expecting success on the road against the Bucks is a stretch. The Hoosiers will also try and get running back Stevie SCott going on the ground, but he could struggle similarly to the performance against MSU when he had 18 yards on 11 carries.
The only thing going for Indiana in this Game is that Ohio State is coming off a tight contest with Penn State. If the Buckeyes take it easy in this Game, there’s a chance Ramsey could do enough to get a cover for the road team, but that’s still asking a lot from an all-around inferior team.
The Hoosiers are 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 Conference Games and haven’t covered in their last seven on the road. The Buckeyes have covered in their last Four at home and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven overall. In this matchup, Indiana is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
Our Pick – OVER 62.5