Kentucky
vs.
Texas A&M
College Football
Pick
10/6/18
Kentucky is the talk of the town and it could get even louder if it wins this Game. Texas A&M has other ideas, though that didn’t matter when it barely got past Arkansas last weekend. The Aggies are still -5.5 home favorites with an over/under of 49.5 as of Wednesday at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
It’s safe to say the Wildcats should not be overlooked. They’ve already won on the road against a solid Florida team and most recently took down Miss. State and South Carolina at home. This may be the toughest of them all even though they were close to a 14-point underdog at UF and about 10-point underdogs at Miss. St. Texas A&M was considered legit after the first Four weeks since its first two losses came against Clemson and Alabama, but then it struggled to beat a bad Arkansas team as Kellen Mond threw a couple interceptions. It’s still unknown just how good the Aggies are, but we should get a better idea after this Game.
The one thing A&M has been able to do is run the ball in the early Games behind Trayveon Williams and Mond, with the team averaging 5.5 yards per carry. However, defense happens to be the reason UK is in this spot, allowing only 3.6 ypc against teams that love to run the ball. And that’s exactly the approach A&M is going to take and that’s what they did last week with 46 rushes compared to 26 passes. If they struggle like they did against Arkansas, this should be a tight Game to the end. Mond is the x-factor, but he only has one Game with more than 210 yards and that came against Clemson. Expecting him to bust open for a huge outing is a stretch.
Kentucky’s defense has been the main reason it’s winning and the 20 points allowed to Central Michigan in the opener was the most it’s allowed all season. To win this Game, or cover, the Wildcats need to keep Texas A&M in that same area, below 20 points. That’ll be possible if they can stop the ground Game, but the offense will still have to control things against a defense that’s allowing only 3.1 yards per carry.
That could end up being the reason Kentucky loses this Game because it’s gotten nothing out of quarterback Terry Wilson this year as he has just two touchdowns and five interceptions. The sophomore is purely there to help Benny Snell in the ground Game and both of them have been great, averaging at least 5.6 yards per carry with Snell already at 639 yards and eight touchdowns. If that doesn’t work like it has in every Game, that will lead to problems because Wilson can’t win the Game by himself. against the best run defense they’ve faced, this will be Kentucky’s biggest task of the early season.
Kentucky is a great story and when it comes down to it, these teams are pretty even. The difference is that the Aggies are at home under the lights, which is what could end up deciding the Game. The Wildcats are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road Games and 6-2 ATS in their last eight against a team with a winning home record. The Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six at home and have covered in their last Four against a team with a winning record. This is also the first matchup between these schools since 1953.
Our Pick – Kentucky +6