Odds and Prediction
Clemson is still undefeated and it’s hard to see anyone in the ACC beating them this season. That includes Louisville, which has taken a major step back without LAmar Jackson and sits with a 2-6 overall record. The Tigers opened as huge -37.5 point home favorites with an over/under of 59.5 at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
This spread can’t go high enough given Clemson’s recent dominance. since barely getting past Syracuse, the Tigers have dominated Wake Forest, NC State and FSU by a combined 163-20 Scoreline. Considering the schools played and that two of them were on the road, those are incredible results. Louisville is in major trouble having lost its last five Games, most recently getting gouged at home by Wake 56-35. Of course, Clemson won at Wake 63-3 only a few weeks ago. If the Cardinals compete in this Game, it’d be a surprise because Clemson’s defense is playing up to its potential allowing just 13 points and 264 yards per contest.
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That’s not a recipe for success with sophomore quarterback Jawon Pass leading Louisville’s offense with seven passing touchdowns and eight interceptions. He’s had some big outings and almost upset FSU a month ago, but the one time he faced a legit defense, he managed 14 points in the opening loss to Alabama. since it’s hard to see Louisville getting much from a ground Game that’s averaging 3.6 yards per carry, everything will be on Pass to put points on the board and given recent results, he’ll have trouble topping 14 points and that’s including a garbage-time touchdown. Even in Louisville last year with LAmar Jackson at quarterback, Clemson dominated in a 47-21 win and the Cardinals still got two Fourth-quarter touchdowns.
Clemson’s offense is the reason why it can cover this Game as Trevor LAwrence has taken a major step since becoming the full-time No. 1 quarterback. He has 16 touchdowns and only two picks this year and has carved up defenses the last three weeks. Combine that with Travis Etienne, who is averaging 7.8 yards per carry and 15 total touchdowns and it’s hard to see Louisville stopping this offense to less than 40 points. The Cardinals have been torched by every offense it’s faced, giving up 36.3 points and a monstrous 250 rushing yards per contest. Clemson is averaging 6.2 yards per carry and should feast against this weak defensive front, similar to last year when it had 297 rushing yards.
The most likely way for Louisville to cover is if Pass gets a late touchdown and that’s more than possible. It just depends on how many points Clemson is winning by and in recent Games, it’s gotten out to 50-point leads.
The Cardinals are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 overall and haven’t covered in their last Four road Games. The Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Conference Games, but 1-4 ATS in their last five at home. There are no trends between these teams, but Clemson has scored 89 points in the last two meetings. The other thing is that the spread in the last Four meetings has been in single digits, much different than this one.
Our Pick – We won’t be playing this one in the real world, however, Our model likes Clemson by a score of 58-9. So, we’ll lean towards Clemson -38.5 and over 58.5