Miami BC

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Miami

at

Boston College

Free Football

Pick

10/26/18

One of these teams still has a positive outlook for the rest of the season, while the other is just trying to hang onto relevance. Miami is coming off a road loss at Virginia and still has to travel in three of its next Four Games. Boston College is looking to get to a nice bowl and that would require getting a few upsets to close the season. The Hurricanes opened as small -3.5 point road favorites at 5Dimes Sportsbook

These teams last played in 2012 so there’s little to takeaway from previous matchups. The most deceptive stat between them is that Miami has allowed the fewest total yards in the country because it hasn’t played many quality teams. The Hurricanes were handled by LSU in the opener, barely beat Florida State and then lost at Virginia. Boston College is in the same boat, but it’s a home underdog that still hasn’t lost at home this season, both losses coming at Purdue and NC State. It’s a clash of two strengths as BC is scoring close to 40 points per Game, but again, Miami’s defense likely isn’t as good as the numbers.

The Eagles haven’t had stud running back AJ Dillon the last two Games, yet that hasn’t mattered because Ben Glines has gone for 317 yards in the last three. If Dillon returns, that’s trouble for Miami, but either way, this rushing attack has been able to move the ball on any defense. That’s been enough to put points on the board because Anthony Brown isn’t doing anything special at quarterback with nine of his 14 touchdowns coming in two Games. He’s completing important passes, but it’s the BC ground Game that is the reason to trust this offense.

An equally interesting matchup will be on the other side of the ball because Malik Rosier was again named the starting quarterback after not doing much against Virginia, throwing for 170 yards and an interception to go with 19 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Quarterback has been an issue for the ‘Canes this year and that’s why an ineffective Rosier took over for N’Kosi Perry. To win and cover this Game, Miami will need Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas to consistently move the ball on the ground, which hasn’t happened the last few weeks. Boston College has a solid rush defense allowing just 3.5 yards per carry, which happens to be a better rate than Virginia’s. 

This is a big test for a Miami team that has shown little this season. This Game will be under the lights and on national television against a BC team that can rush the ball on almost every defense. If Miami wants a chance at the Coastal division, it has to win this Game because it’s hard to see them running the table the rest of the way with this offense.

The Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last six road Games and 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Eagles are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 Conference Games and 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine at home. Miami is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these schools but that dates back to 2002, a much different time.

Our Pick – Boston College +3.5