Missouri
vs.
Alabama
College Football
Pick
10/13/18
The sentiment remains for Alabama in that it’s usually never a good idea to bet against them. Undefeated and scoring 56 points per Game, the Crimson Tide face another defense that’s one of the worst in the conference, this time at home. against Missouri, the Tide were a -28.5 point favorite with an over/under of 74 as of Tuesday at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
Missouri wanted to challenge for the SEC East title this year, but it simply doesn’t have enough on the defensive end, giving up 80 points in its last two losses. But there is a route to covering for the road team in this Game, even if it may not feel good to take the Tigers given the team on the other side of the field. At the least, Missouri can Scoreand teams like Texas A&M and Arkansas already dropped more than 20 points on the Alabama defense.
And that’s where Drew Lock and the Missouri offense enter. Lock is set to be drafted following this season, but he’s had some issues in recent Games against better defenses, completing less than 50 percent of his passes for zero touchdowns and three picks in the losses to Georgia and South Carolina. That’s clearly a problem that may not be figured out in a Game against Alabama, but he’s still the same quarterback that threw 44 touchdowns last year so there’s hope for the senior. Part of that inconsistency is working with new skill players in running backs LArry Rountree and Damarea Crockett, as well as Emanuel Hall and a slew of new receivers. The Tigers are running the ball well, but that doesn’t often work against Alabama, which means Lock needs to figure things out quick. If not, Missouri will have trouble scoring. But if Lock reverts to last season’s levels, this offense could drop 20 points on the board like previous opponents have against Alabama.
Of course, the problem is the Missouri defense that will likely give up 50 points to Tua Tagovailoa and company. The Tide have been unfathomable on the offensive end, scoring for fun against every opponent and nothing about the Missouri defense suggests it will stop this group. Tagovailoa has an incredible 18 touchdowns and no picks on 14.80 yards per attempt, which is an unheard of rate through six Games. The ground Game is dominant per usual with Najee and Damien Harris both with at least 6.8 yards per carry. It’s been a common occurrence that this offense drops 28 points in the first quarter and that could easily happen in this one. It’s only a matter of whether Lock can move the chains and keep the defense off the field or not.
Lock and the Missouri offense has potential, but betting on them to Score30 points may be a stretch if Alabama goes for 60 points again. The Tigers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road Games, but 6-2 ATS in their last eight in the conference. The Crimson Tide are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven SEC Games.
Our Pick – Mizu +28