Tennessee
vs.
Georgia
College Football Pick
9/29/18
This line opened at a big number and it’s hard to see anyone putting much money on Tennessee after falling 47-21 at home against Florida last weekend. The Volunteers are still behind the most talented teams in the Conference and that will be seen in this Game. Georgia opened as a large -31.5 point home favorite with an over/under of 53.5 as seen at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
The Bulldogs were unfortunate not to cover last weekend as they kicked a field goal to close the Game instead of getting a touchdown. Either way, Georgia dominated this meeting last year in a huge 41-0 blowout. This was annually a tight matchup with the previous six Games decided by eight points or less and Tennessee won at home in 2015, but that was a long time ago. Georgia is one of the best teams in the country and not much has changed since the last meeting when Jake Fromm only needed to throw for 84 yards as Tennessee managed 142 total yards as a team with 2.1 yards per carry.
There’s no reason to think that won’t happen again because Tennessee hasn’t looked much improved and the status of starting quarterback Jarrett Guarantano may not be a big deal. The sophomore quarterback did nothing against Florida on 7-of-18 passing with two interceptions and eventually was replaced by Keller Chryst because of a leg injury. Georgia’s defense remains one of the best in the country allowing less than 300 total yards per Game and it’s hard to see the Vols finding much room in any part of their Game. Guarantano has been fine against weaker competition, but that’s not going to cut it against Georgia and the same goes for running back Tim Jordan.
Similar to when these teams played last year, it’d be a surprise if Tennessee scraped together 10 points. Sure, the Vols scored 21 against Florida but most of those came after the Gators took a 33-3 lead. Georgia should get out to a similar lead by way of a dominant rushing attack. Florida isn’t known for having a great offense yet still managed 201 rushing yards on 5.9 ypc against the Tennessee front line.
Expect close to the same as last year for Georgia when it ran for 294 yards on 5.3 yards per carry. This time, Elijah Holyfield and D’Andre Swift are the top guys and both should find plenty of holes. As for Fromm, he still hasn’t been asked to do much, but has a solid 10.71 yards per attempt with nine touchdowns.
The most logical route for a Tennessee cover is if it does something similar to the Florida Game, putting points on the board late in the second half when Georgia has backups in. The difference is that Georgia is at home and will be hoping for another shutout.
The Volunteers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road Games and 1-6 ATS in their last seven overall. The Bulldogs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine overall and 4-1 ATS in their last five in the SEC. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these schools while the over is 5-1 in the same period.
Our Pick – Tennessee +31