Texas
vs.
Kansas State
College Football
Pick
9/29/18
It looked to be another disappointing season after the opening loss to Maryland, but Texas turned things around and may be one of Oklahoma’s bigger threats in the conference. The same can’t be said for Kansas State, which has been a mess on both sides of the ball. The Longhorns were -8.5 road favorites with an over/under of 48 as of Wednesday at YOUWAGER Sportsbook.
It’s hard to put any bets on Kansas State right now having lost its two Games to relevant competition (Miss. State, WVU) by a combined 66-16 Scoreline. That offensive output isn’t going to get it done in the Big 12, especially with Kansas even showing life this season. Playing at home may not matter for the Wildcats if Texas continues it’s run after taking down USC and TCU in the last two weeks.
These teams went to double overtime last year with the Longhorns winning 40-34 behind Sam Ehlinger’s 380 passing yards and 107 rushing yards. No one else on the offense really did anything, while the Wildcats also had a balanced attack with Jesse Ertz at quarterback. The difference is that Ertz is no longer there and KSU is having a quarterback issue. Skyler Thompson didn’t do enough in the first few Games and Bill Snyder declared Alex Delton as the starter for this Game. It’s hard to see Delton providing a spark since he’s been the backup the last few years for a reason and he’s now a junior. The running Game hasn’t done enough with Alex Barnes at 4.4 yards per carry, most of those coming against weaker competition.
It doesn’t help that K State’s defense is still an issue, though at least kept Miss. State and WVU to respectable totals. But even if Texas only scores 30 points in this Game, that won’t be enough to cover if Delton can’t lead the offense to 20.
Ehlinger will likely be an issue for this defense again as he’s looked much better over the last few Games and doesn’t have an interception since the Maryland loss. He’s not exactly carving up defenses, but USC and TCU probably have a better defense than KSU’s. To keep the Longhorns off the field, K State will have to stop Ehlinger and Tre Watson in the running Game and that’s not a guarantee. The Wildcats are giving up 178 rushing yards per contest and there’s no reason to think that changes in this Game.
While Kansas State almost always wins this matchup at home, this team will be hard to bet on considering how much it’s underperformed. Texas is coming off back-to-back wins against betters teams so most of the money will be on them.
The Longhorns are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road Games, while the Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five at home, though still have a 5-1-1 ATS mark in their last seven following an ATS loss. The home team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these schools and K State is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11, though a lot of those came as the favorite.
Our Pick – Kansas State +8.5