UL LAfayette
vs.
Alabama
College Football
Pick
9/29/18
Bookmakers couldn’t put this line high enough and Alabama will probably still receive the majority of bets. The Crimson Tide have another freebie on the Schedule against a Louisiana team that just lost at home to Coastal Carolina and lost by 46 points at Miss. State the week before. That’s why the Tide were -49 point favorites early in the week with an over/under of 66 at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
The reasons are minimal to take the Ragin’ Cajuns in this matchup unless you like playing Games with your money. Alabama already beat one Sun Belt team this season in a 57-7 demolition against Arkansas State and the Red Wolves are actually one of the better teams in the conference. In comparison, Louisiana LAfayette lost to Arkansas State 47-3 last year if that says anything. This Game won’t be much different than the 56-10 win Mississippi State had a couple weeks ago. The Bulldogs ran for 331 yards and Louisiana didn’t Scorea touchdown until the final quarter when backups were in, which may be the only time they’ll be able to Scoreagainst Alabama.
The Ragin’ Cajuns will be lucky to reach 10 points in this one after a much better Arkansas State offense was held to seven against Alabama. Quarterback Andre Nunez is in his first season as a full-time starter and while his numbers don’t look bad, he went just 7-of-14 in the loss to Coastal Carolina and that was with a running Game. Louisiana has gotten solid numbers from running back Trey Ragas and he managed 95 total yards against Miss. State, but doing that against Alabama is a long shot. And if Ragas struggles to find room, Nunez will be forced to pass more and that’s not a good thing against the Alabama defense.
To easily cover this Game, the Tide may need to reach 60 points in case the backups allow a touchdown late. Otherwise, if they only Score50, a shutout is a difficult thing to ask for. Of course, Louisiana has no chance in stopping Alabama’s offense as Tua Tagovailoa is carving through every defense with a ridiculous 12.91 yards per attempt and 12 touchdowns with no picks. Najee and Damien Harris should both combine for nice outings, though they may be benched once the second half starts. And even if Alabama is up by 40 points entering the second half, Jalen Hurts will still come in and push the ball for a few more touchdowns.
There is some thought that Nick Saban won’t pile on the points against Louisiana head coach Billy Napier as he served as Alabama’s offensive analyst in the 2011 season, but it’ll be hard not to Score60 points in this Game even if the Tide run the ball on every play.
The Ragin’ Cajuns are 1-4 ATS in their last five road Games and haven’t covered in their last Four vs. a team with a winning record. The Crimson Tide are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and 1-5 ATS in their last six against the Sun Belt.
Our Pick – Over 68.5