Washington State
at
Colorado
ATS Pick
Trends
11/11/18
This is oddly an important Game in the Pac-12 because Washington State is the only team in the Conference with less than two losses, which means it is the only one with a legit chance to make the College Football Playoff. The Cougars still aren’t huge favorites playing on the road at -6 points with an over/under of 60.5 as of Wednesday at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
Washington State has been one of the best teams against the spread in the country this season, but oddly only scored 19 points against Cal last weekend. The main reasoning for all of the covers is due to smaller spreads with only one of its last seven Games being by more than eight points. That’s where this one falls and that’s why the Cougars could be set for another cover against a struggling Colorado team. The Buffaloes have fallen apart since winning their first five of the season, recently falling to Arizona, but even worse losing at home to Oregon State before that. This spread may be at six points, but all Four Colorado losses have come by at least seven points.
This Game wasn’t a contest last season mostly because Colorado couldn’t move the ball, throwing for just 94 yards and getting 2.0 yards per carry. The Cougars were a little better and that was all they needed in a 28-0 win. At the least this year, Steven Montez has kept the offense competent, throwing for 17 touchdowns in his first full season at quarterback. He hasn’t played well against decent defenses, which is the main problem with this team. Running back Travon McMillian has done a nice job with 837 yards, but due to sacks, the Buffs are averaging just 4.1 yards per carry as a team. Wazzu doesn’t have an elite defense, but it’s doing enough to win Games and that was seen in the Cal Game.
To cover, Colorado’s defense will need to do a little more than its done the last couple Games, allowing 83 points combined to Oregon State and Arizona. After Khalil Tate threw for 350 yards last week, it’s hard to see Colorado limiting Gardner Minshew and company.
Minshew didn’t have a great Game against Cal, but still threw for 334 yards, which keeps alive his streak of 300-yard Games. There’s no reason to think Colorado will slow him and his 70.8% completion rate down. Sure, LUke Falk only completed 50 percent of his passes in this matchup last year, but Minshew has been more efficient than Falk was in 2017. And with the Buffs allowing 237 passing yards per Game, the Cougars can stick with their Air Raid that will result in only about 10 rushes from the running backs. Given how Colorado has played in its last couple Games, it’s hard to go with them in this spot, especially with Wazzu scoring close to 40 points per Game and that includes dropping 41 at Stanford a couple weeks ago.
The Cougars are 8-1 ATS in their last nine overall, while the Buffaloes are 3-8-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and haven’t covered in their last Four at home against a team with a winning road record. There are no relevant trends between these teams, though the winner of the last three has been by at least 14 points.
Additional ATS Trends
Washington St
Washington St is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Conference Games.
Washington St is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Games as a favorite.
Washington St is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Games following win.
Washington St is 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Washington St is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 Games overall.
Washington St is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games as a road favorite.
Colorado
Colorado is 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 Conference Games.
Colorado is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 Games as a home underdog.
Colorado is 3-8-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Colorado is 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 Games as an underdog.
Our Pick – Washington State -6