Auburn at Florida Free College Football Pick – 10/5/19

gators host auburn as 3 point home dogs
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If you want to be the best, you have to beat the best, and that’s kind of what this season is about for each of these teams. Auburn and Florida enter this matchup undefeated, both with hopes of upending the favorites and making the SEC title game. Playing on the road, the Tigers were an early -3 point favorite with an over/under of 46.5 points.

The difference between these teams is that Auburn has already beat Oregon, Texas A&M and Mississippi State, while Florida’s best wins are against Miami FL, Kentucky and… Tennessee? And still, they probably shouldn’t have beaten Kentucky after being down 11 points in the fourth quarter. Either way, they’re here with a new quarterback leading the way.

While Kyle Trask wasn’t the starter at the beginning of the season, he’s posting almost identical numbers to Feleipe Franks (9.8 yards per attempt) and he also led the comeback against UK. That said, this offense still has some questions no matter who is leading the offense.

Top running back Lamical Perine is averaging 3.7 yards per carry, while Dameon Pierce got more than half of his season total rushing yards in the win against Towson. To have a chance in this game, it falls on Trask to find top receivers Van Jefferson, Trevon Grimes and Kyle Pitts. 

The problem is that Auburn’s defense may be better than anything Florida has seen. While the Tigers have allowed 20 points three different times, their defensive front is one of the best around and limiting opponents to less than 100 rushing yards per contest. That doesn’t help an already limited Florida rushing attack.

The other end is what Florida has to rely on, but so far no one has truly contained Auburn’s offense. Bo Nix may not be an elite quarterback averaging 7.8 yards per attempt, but Gus Malzahn doesn’t expect huge numbers from him anyway.

As long as this offense continues to find the end zone, that’s all that matters. Leading the way, running back JaTarvious Whitlow has 463 yards and seven touchdowns, while Nix has a solid 4.9 yards per carry. After dispatching Miss. State for 56 points last week, there’s no reason to doubt this offense from doing what’s needed to win games.

The Gators have a good defense, but they haven’t faced an offense quite like this and it remains to be seen how good they can be. While Florida can make a game of it at home, it’s hard to bet against Auburn given what it’s already done this season. 

Auburn is 5-0 ATS this season, while Florida 1-4 ATS in its last five conference games. The underdog has covered in the last four meetings between these schools (all Auburn), but they also haven’t played since 2011.

Our Pick – We’re using this game as a Key Release so for this spot, we’ll offer a selection on the total.

These game features two of the better defenses in the country this year. There are many stats available to measure and rank a defense. We like to use yards per point, which in this case would have the Gators ranked #6 and the The Tigers 22nd.

That should go a long way towards keeping this one UNDER 47.

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