Florida State at Clemson Free College Football Pick – 10/12/19

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Clemson got two weeks to think about how it played at UNC, a game that almost ended in a loss. That’s not what Florida State wants even after coming off two wins itself. The Tigers opened as -27 point home favorites with an over/under of 61.5.

The best thing Florida State can say about itself is that it’s at least been competitive and still has a winning record. Sure, beating Louisville and NC State doesn’t mean much this year, but it wasn’t completely blown out in its losses.

Then again, if the Seminoles were good, they’d probably be undefeated because they should’ve beaten both Boise and Virginia. The problem is if Clemson brings its A-game following a bye week, the result could be a lot similar to last year’s 59-10 beat down.

The Tigers are one of the best teams in the country, there’s no arguing that. The wins over Texas A&M and UNC don’t look amazing, but they aren’t losses. This offense should have its way against FSU, who is allowing almost 30 points and 300 passing yards per game.

It hasn’t truly clicked for Trevor Lawrence with eight touchdowns and five interceptions, but there’s a chance that changes in this game. Even if it doesn’t, running backs Travis Etienne and Lyn-J Dixon should find plenty of room in the ground game as Clemson is averaging 6.1 yards per carry as a team. 

FSU’s defense has been better the last couple games, but both Louisville and NC State are having offensive issues. The Tigers surprisingly only averaged 3.6 yards per carry in last year’s game, yet still won by 49 points.

That’s because their defense limited the Seminoles to minus-21 rushing yards (sacks included). Clemson’s defense was supposed to take a step back this year, but that group has arguably been the better side of the ball, allowing 255 yards per game.

The one thing going for the Seminoles is that they’ve been able to score on everyone. Clemson isn’t everyone, but FSU’s offense is still better than last season. However, there are questions about quarterback because James Blackman is set to return from a knee injury, but head coach Willie Taggart also said Alex Hornibrook will see time, as well.

Using two quarterbacks against this defense probably isn’t a good strategy, especially since they’ve been sacked a combined 19 times in five games. The other part is that Cam Akers probably won’t have as much success running the ball as he’s had, averaging 5.1 yards per carry for seven touchdowns. Clemson’s run defense may not be as good as last year, but it’s still one of the best in the ACC and country.

The Seminoles have been competitive this year and that’s their main selling point in this game. However, the Tigers have been waiting to bounce back for the past two weeks and could win this matchup by another huge margin.

The over has hit in FSU’s last five road games, while the under is 5-1 in Clemson’s last six conference games. The over is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings between these schools and the Tigers are 6-2 ATS in the last eight games between them played in Clemson.

Our Pick – Florida State +27

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