Ideally, this matchup would decide the SEC East, but things are far from over. Georgia still plays Missouri, Auburn and Texas A&M, while Florida has an easier schedule, but has to travel to Missouri. Coming off back-to-back non-covers, the Bulldogs were -6 point favorites late Monday with an over/under of 47 for the game in Jacksonville.
Georgia’s No. 8 ranking in the AP Poll doesn’t show it, but it hasn’t really done much this season. Its biggest win was at home against Notre Dame, who just got blown out by Michigan.
Otherwise, Georgia hasn’t looked great in recent games against South Carolina or Kentucky and hasn’t played anyone else relevant. Florida has had a more difficult schedule highlighted by a win against Auburn and it was mostly competitive against LSU. Unlike previous results between these teams, this one feels like a closer matchup.
The Bulldogs won 36-17 last year, but that game was 23-17 in the fourth quarter. The matchup was fairly even as the Gators held their own and both teams rushed for 4.6 yards per carry.
Jake Fromm was the eventual difference and that could be the case again. His numbers remain iffy with nine touchdowns and three interceptions on 8.1 yards per attempt, but more often than not, he’s done what’s been asked of him.
Sure, if he didn’t throw three interceptions against the Gamecocks they’d be undefeated, but those interceptions were a rarity. This is an offense that wants to ride running backs D’Andre Swift and Brian Herrien, averaging 6.1 yards per carry as a team.
The matchup points to Georgia because it has a better rush defense, giving up 85.7 yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry. Florida is solid, but allowing a worse 124.1 rushing yards and 3.8 yards per carry. Then again, Georgia has a boost in numbers because of schedule so that could play a part.
Offensively, the Gators have gotten more out of quarterback Kyle Trask, who has been impressive, averaging 8.2 yards per attempt with 14 touchdowns and four picks.
Not many thought this offense could score consistently against LSU and then Trask threw for 310 yards and three touchdowns. While they’ll try and lean on running back Lamical Perine, the ability of Trask to put points on the board could come up big in this game because that’s something Feleipe Franks couldn’t do in last year’s matchup, throwing for 105 yards.
A lot of people will lean to the favorite because of the last two years, but the Bulldogs may not be as well rounded as those teams and that’s where the Gators can pounce, especially as an underdog.
Georgia has covered its last four following a bye and is 7-1 ATS in its last eight on a neutral field. Florida is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 on grass, while the over is 7-1-1 in its last nine following an ATS win. The under is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings between these schools and the favorite has covered in the last four.
Our Pick – Florida +6