Texas Tech at Kansas Free College Football Pick – 10/26/19

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Kansas has yet to win a conference game, but that could change at some point and it almost changed last week against Texas. Led by Les Miles, there has been more buzz surrounding Kansas than Texas Tech this season. That didn’t stop the Red Raiders from being a -4 point road favorite with an over/under of 64.5 points as of Wednesday.

You could look at the last few results between these teams, but with two new head coaches, that may not help.

Texas Tech is playing in lower-scoring games, but outside of the win against OK State, has mostly disappointed as the defense remains a major issue, allowing 184 rushing yards per contest and at least 33 points in all four conference games.

Of course, Kansas has been worse than that, allowing 223 rushing yards and 32.6 points per game.

The Jayhawks are coming off a disappointing loss at Texas, but this team still has plenty to look forward to. Outside of the Coastal Carolina loss, they’ve been competitive this season and as long as they put a similar effort into this game at home, an upset is more than possible.

That’s because they should continue to move the ball with a large workload ahead for Pooka Williams. The running back is averaging 5.5 yards per carry and has 227 rushing yards in the last two games.

The Jayhawks will likely force feed him, but it’s not like quarterback Carter Stanley has been inept. His numbers are fairly decent and while he’s completing 63.2% of his passes, he has seven touchdowns and no interceptions the last two games.

As long as KU’s offense plays the same it has been the last couple weeks, there’s no reason why an upset isn’t possible.

Defense is another story for the Jayhawks, but the Red Raiders don’t have the same high-powered offense as previous seasons. Jett Duffey is being asked to air it out, but most of it is near the line of scrimmage as none of his top wideouts are averaging more than 13.3 yards per catch.

As for Duffey, he attempted 52 passes last week, but averaging 4.6 yards per pass. His numbers will likely see a boost against this defense, but he hasn’t been consistent.

The rushing attack has actually been successful, averaging 4.8 yards per carry as a team behind the trio of SaRodorick Thompson, Armand Shyne and Ta’Zhawn Henry, but when they get behind early, that’s when Duffey takes over. 

The over is 3-0-1 in Tech’s last four games, while Kansas is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a straight-up loss. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these schools, but the Red Raiders are 5-1 ATS in the last six.

Our Pick – Texas Tech -4

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