New Mexico at Utah State Free College Football Pick – 11/26/20

utah state football betting odds
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A couple of winless Mountain West teams will play on Thanksgiving Night as Utah State will host New Mexico in a game that kicks off at 7 pm est.

New mexico is a -6 point road favorite in this game with a current posted total as of Monday of 52 at GTBets.

Two Weak Offenses

When you take a look at the yards per point numbers here we see two teams with near identical numbers.

Both have an offense number of 21.5 on offense and both are around 14 on defense. So, we have two extremely inefficient offenses going up against average defenses.

To put it in perspective, those offensive numbers above have these two tied for 3rd worst in the nation. The only two teams in the country with worse offensive numbers are UMASS and Bowling Green.

The first rule of thumb here would be to never lay points with an offense that has that much trouble turning yards into points.

This is a game where we think strength of schedule comes into play. Neither team has had a cake walk.

The two best teams New Mexico has faced would be San Jose and Nevada. The other two were Hawaii and Air Force.

But Utah State has played the best teams in the MWC in Boise State, Nevada, San Diego State and Fresno State. Those teams are the top 4 teams in the MWC, any of which could win the title.

Aggies A Live Dog

So while New Mexico is favored and may appear to have an advantage, particularly in the running game, Utah State is very likely to have more success moving the ball this week than they have had all season long.

We think the Aggies are a live dog here at home getting +6 in what figures to be an excellent chance for them to gran their first win.

Utah State +6