New Mexico Bowl Pick – Hawaii vs. Houston – 12/24/20

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New Mexico Bowl Pick
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This afternoon at 3:30 pm est. the New Mexico Bowl will take place with Houston taking on Hawaii. The game has been relocated to Frisco, Texas, due to COVID. Houston is a -9.5 point favorite with a total of 59.5.

I guess the big question here is, will anyone be watching? Does anyone care? In my house, it wil serve as background noise I suppose. It’s one of those games where perhaps the best option is to throw a peanut on the over and root for a score fest!

We’ll list our models prediction below. The model likes Houston to cover comfortably, however, it also sees a high scoring affair.

I personally have zero interest in a side here, however I’ll warn you that anytime a game is likely to see lots of points, you have to be leery of good sized favorites.

Here is what the model has to say.

Hawaii                    60.0          22     
Houston                  -10.5          45

Both teams have played just 3 road games. In the case of Hawaii, their performance in those 3 road games doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in an over wager. They averaged just 17 points per game with a terrible yards per point number on the road of 20.8.

We saw similar numbers for Memphis in last nights FAU/Memphis game, a game which many expected to go over the total. Final was 25-10.

So tread lightly.

Slight lean towards the OVER 59.5.

Merry Christmas!

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