A lot of people are pegging Notre Dame to reach the ACC title game unscathed, but there’s one road block in its way and that’s this weekend. North Carolina has had some disappointing performances, but it has one of the more potent offenses in the conference and that’s enough to upset anyone. The Fighting Irish opened as slight -3.5 point road favorites with an over/under of 63.5.
The Irish are undefeated, but they remain a mystery from week-to-week which is why they are 4-4 ATS for the season. They took down Clemson, but also struggled to separate against the likes of Louisville and Boston College.
Their main edge is in the trenches and that’s the main reason they beat Clemson. They’re averaging 5.2 yards per carry while allowing just 2.9 yards per carry on the other side of the ball.
That’s UNC’s main problem in this game because they haven’t really stopped anyone defensively, allowing 151 rushing yards and over 30 points per game. They gave up 53 points in regulation against Wake Forest and there’s little reason to think they’ll stop the Irish from moving the ball with ease.
The Irish will likely use a three-headed rushing attack with Kyren Williams, Chris Tyree and C’Bo Flemister, all of whom are averaging at least 5.5 yards per carry. Throw in quarterback Ian Book, who has 364 rushing yards and six touchdowns despite being sacked 13 times, and it’s easy to see why they’re undefeated.
Book has been fine passing the ball, averaging 8.2 yards per attempt for 11 touchdowns, but his best trait may be the one interception. As long as this offense runs the ball for five yards per carry and doesn’t turn it over, it will have no problems scoring against UNC.
The question is what Notre Dame’s secondary can do against Sam Howell. While the Tar Heels also love to run the ball between Javonte Williams and Michael Carter, who are both averaging more than seven yards per carry, it’s going to be hard for them to reach those numbers against this defense.
If Notre Dame can limit Clemson to 34 rushing yards, there’s no reason they can’t do the same against UNC. That’s where Howell enters the picture, averaging 10.6 yards per attempt for 23 touchdowns and six interceptions. Aided by wide receivers Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome, this passing offense will try to replicate what Clemson did against Notre Dame a few weeks ago, throwing for 439 yards.
Notre Dame has the edge on both lines of scrimmage, but there’s no question UNC has the offense to stay competitive. The problem is that the Heels have struggled defensively against everyone and that’s not going to help against one of the best rushing attacks in the country. While an upset is possible, it’s hard betting against a team who could control both lines of scrimmage.
The Irish have covered in their last five against a team with a winning record, while the Heels are 4-1 ATS in their last five at home and 4-0 ATS in their last four following an ATS loss.
Our Pick – Notre Dame -5