This year’s Iron Bowl has revenge written all over it after Auburn won 48-45 last season. That result wasn’t that surprising as Alabama didn’t look elite without Tua Tagovailoa and was just a -3.5 point favorite.
A year later and things are looking better for the Crimson Tide, which is why they opened as -24.5 point home favorites with an over/under of 60.5 at MyBookie.
Alabama had some early defensive questions, but those have been quelled after allowing three points the last two games. A lot of that has to do with opponents, but allowing three points against any two teams in the SEC is a good feat.
That defense will need to step up against an offense that has somewhat figured things out after struggling early in the season.
Auburn Offense Shaky
Auburn scored just six points against Georgia and then lost to South Carolina, who has become one of the worst teams in the conference. With the help of some bad opposing defenses, the Tigers have scored at least 30 points in each of their last three games. But again, it’s not like they’ve turned into an elite group.
Bo Nix is still a mediocre quarterback and the rushing attack hasn’t had major success against an above average defense. Despite beating Tennessee last week, they managed 4.3 yards per carry while Nix threw for 220 yards.
Outside of the win against LSU, Nix hasn’t really looked much improved from last season, as he’s averaging 7.3 yards per attempt for 10 touchdowns and five interceptions. He’s second on the team with 284 rushing yards, which isn’t usually a good sign.
Leading running back Tank Bigsby left early with an injury against the Vols, which means D.J. Williams and Shaun Shivers could split carries in this game.
Auburn will try and rely on that ground game, but it won’t be easy to bet on against Alabama, who is allowing 3.5 yards per carry and 119 rushing yards per contest.
Alabama impressed in its last game, holding a solid Kentucky rushing attack to just 59 yards on 32 carries.
The other side of the ball could be trouble for the Tigers as well, despite them allowing 22 points per game. Overall, they’re probably worse than last year’s group and even then, the Tide almost did whatever they wanted in that last meeting.
Jones Completing 77.1%
Mac Jones has been great, completing 77.1% of his passes on 12.1 yards per attempt for 18 touchdowns and three interceptions. Top receiver DeVonta Smith has torched defenses, totaling 347 yards and six touchdowns the last two games, while John Metchie has fallen off a bit since taking over for Jaylen Waddle.
Even with that stout passing game, running back Najee Harris may be the biggest threat having compiled 797 yards and 16 touchdowns on 5.8 yards per carry. As a team, Auburn is allowing 4.0 yards per carry and 165 rushing yards per game, which isn’t going to work in this matchup.
There are still questions surrounding Nix and the Auburn offense, which won’t make it easy to bet on the underdog. Throw in added revenge for Nick Saban after losing last year’s meeting and the Crimson Tide could be set for another huge outing.
The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between these teams, but those games were at full capacity.
Would love to have a strong opinion or an actual Key Release on this one, however, sometimes the numbers just don’t support it.
Our model has this one right around the number but does lean towards the under 62.5. Also keep in mind that the Alabama defense hasn’t exactly been stellar this year. With such a big number we’d lean towards Auburn plus the points.
Auburn under 62.5 and Auburn +25