South Carolina will host Tennessee on Saturday in an SEC game that saw the Vols open as 3 point favs with a total of 47.5. Those numbers are now Tennessee -3.5 with a total of 43.5 at betonline and GTBets.
To understand the big line move on the total in this game, one need only look back to last years offensive production for these two.
Both Teams Struggled Offensively
Taking a look at their yards per point numbers offensively, these were two of the worst teams in the country. The Gamecocks had an offensive ypp number of 18.7 which ranked them 125 out of 130 teams as far as offensive efficiency.
THe vols weren’t much better, with a ypp number on offense of 16.3, good for a ranking of 103.
So, two teams who couldn’t turn yards into points. Hence, a line move from 48 in spots down to 43.
Model Says Close Low Scoring Game
Our model concurs. Here are the score predictions using data from the full season, last 4 games and last 7 games, respectively.
According to those predictions, even the current total of 43.5 is too high.
Last years game between these two saw South Carolina lead at the half by a score of 21-17 before being shut out to the tune of 24-0 in the 2nd half en route to a 41-21 loss.
The Vols started last season 2-7 with a tough early schedule before rattling off 6 straight wins to close out the year. Though three of those wins were narrow, by 4 points or less including their 1 point bowl game win over Indiana.
While the Gamecocks had their problems last season, especially on offense, this team still knocked off Georgia at Georgia.
Furthermore, 6 of the last 8 games in this series were decided by 3 points or less with each team winning 4 games. That shows us some pretty damn even talent at these programs.
We’ll side with the home dog here with a little added line value because of the move and a chance to gain some revenge from last embarrassing loss.
Our Pick South Carolina +3.5