Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville jaguars Week 3 NFL Free Pick – 9/24/20

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Miami Dolphins (0-2 1-1 ATS) at Jacksonville jaguars (1-1 0-2 ATS)

In a Thursday night game where bragging rights in the Sunshine State are up for grabs the surprising Jacksonville Jaguars play host to the winless Dolphins. The Jags are a 3-point home favorite in this AFC matchup with the total sitting at 48.

Public money has been on the Jags, big time, in this game, as the contest opened as a Pick, and as of Tuesday Jacksonville is the 3-point favorite.

The Jags have been a surprise, as they were oh so close to going 2-0 in their last game but fell to the Tennessee Titans 33-30 in a hard-fought battle. Still, the team is 1-1 and while their defense has not been great they have totaled 57 points in their first two games.

No surprise the Dolphins are 0-2 and if the losing continues how long will it be before it is time for Tua Tagovailoa?

These teams met last in the 2018 season where the Jags beat the Dolphins 17-7.

The road team has covered the spread in five of the last seven games between these teams.

The Offense is There, but D Not so Much

After only scoring 11 points in losing their opener the Dolphins scored 28 points in their last game but gave up 31 points and a whopping 524 total yards in a loss to the Buffalo Bills. The Miami secondary was torched in the game giving up 424 yards.

After a horrid season opener throwing three picks, Miami QB Ryan Fitzpatrick played well in the loss to the Bills passing for 328 yards with two TD and no INT and a QB rating of 100.3. Mike Gesicki led the team with 130 receiving yards with Isaiah Ford and DeVante Parker chiming in for 76 and 53 receiving yards respectively.

Myles Gaskin and Matt Breida combined for 83 rushing yards with each averaging at least 5.3 yards per carry. Look for the fish to lean on the run in this game to take some pressure off their secondary.

Fitz-magic and company will be facing a Jax defense that was not bad in the last game and contained 2019 rushing leader Derrick Henry holding him to 84 yards on a 3.4 yard per carry average.

Close But No Cigar

In their 33-30 loss to the Tennessee Titans in their last game the Jags outscored the Titans 13-3 in the fourth quarter but gave up the game-winning field goal with less than two minutes left.

Jax outgained Tennessee 480 yards to 354 yards but had two turnovers and forced none and the team was down 24-10 at the half.

Gardner Minshew passed for 339 yards with three TD and two INT and D.J. Clark had 84 receiving yards. He does not have a great WR corps but a decent one that looks to feast on a Miami pass D that was lit up in their last game.

James Robinson rushed for 102 yards to lead the Jags in the loss to the Titans after rushing for 62 yards in the season opener. He averaged a more than solid 6.4 yards per carry in the Tennessee game after averaging less than four yards per carry in the opener.

Our Prediction

The Dolphins have failed to cover in 15 of their last 22 road games but the Jags have failed to cover in four of their last five home games as a favorite.

I think the Jags will surprise some people this season if their D can improve and if Minshew can avoid the turnover. That will happen in this Thursday night game in their house and Jacksonville will light up the Dolphins easily winning and covering the spread. Miami will fall to 0-3 with the loss and there will be rumblings in South Beach to get Tua on the field.

 PICK: Jaguars -3