Western Kentucky at Louisville Free College Football Pick ATS – 9/12/20

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Louisville Football
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Louisville will kick off the 2020 college football season by hosting Western Kentucky on Saturday September 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 8pm EST. and the Cardinals are favored by 11.5 with a total of 57.5 at Bovada Sportsbook.

These two teams have met the last two seasons. In 2018 Louisville, a 2-10 team, beat Western Kentucky 20-17. Last year, the Cards won in dominating fashion in a game that was over at halftime.

The Cards led 31-7 at the half en route to a 38 -21 win.

From ESPN:

Hilltoppers first-year coach Tyson Helton said the Cardinals dominated his squad at the line of scrimmage, and that was the difference in the game.

“They just overpowered us, to be honest with you. Defensively for them, they controlled the line of scrimmage. They were able to hold the point and control it”.

Not much has changed personnel wise. However, that game was played at the beginning of last season. Both teams have had time to improve.

Our Model

In fact, if this game were played at the end of last season rather than the beginning, our model would have seen it much closer. 31-26 Louisville to be exact, using data from the last 7 games for each team.

Western Kentucky loses starting QB Ty Storrey as well as back up Steven Duncan. They’ll go with Maryland transfer Tyrrell Pigrome so they’ll at least have experience behind center.

Louisville coach Scott Satterfield deserves tons of credit. He took a 2-10 Cardinal team to 8-5 and a bowl game win in his first year.

Our Pick

No question Louisville is the more talented team and could potentially dominate on the line once again. However, we expect WKU to fare a little better this time around, offensively.

The Cards also have Miami on deck so the potential exists for Louisville to be looking ahead and not taking Western Kentucky as serious as they should.

For the Hilltoppers, there is no bigger game on their dance card. Many of these kids were looked over by Louisville. The opportunity to show their stuff to the very coaches who passed them by is always a huge motivator.

Last year it was 31-7 at the half. Expect a much closer 1st half this time around. We’ll divide our selection into 3. Western Kentucky + the points in the first quarter and 1st half and Western Kentucky +12 for the game.

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