Washington State hosts Oregon State this week in PAC-12 play with the visiting Beavers opened as -2.5 point favorites and have been bet up to -3.5 as of Thursday afternoon. The current posted total is 59.
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Oregon State dropped their first game of the 2021 season to Purdue, 30-21, but since that loss they have been a pleasant surprise, going 4-0. Included in that 4-0 run are wins over USC and Washington. Oregon State currently sits in 1st place in the PAC-12 North.
Washington State is currently 2-3 overall and 1-2 in conference play. It’s still early but the Cougars can’t afford another conference loss. That means big games every week that are essentially must win.
Head to Head History
11/ 7/2020 Washington State 38 + 3.0 at Oregon State 28 11/23/2019 Oregon State 53 +10.5 at Washington State 54 10/ 6/2018 Washington State 56 -17.0 at Oregon State 37 9/16/2017 Oregon State 23 +20.0 at Washington State 52 10/29/2016 Washington State 35 -13.0 at Oregon State 31 10/17/2015 Oregon State 31 + 7.5 at Washington State 52 11/ 8/2014 Washington State 39 + 9.0 at Oregon State 32 10/12/2013 Oregon State 52 + 0.0 at Washington State 24 10/ 6/2012 Washington State 6 +14.5 at Oregon State 19 10/22/2011 Washington State 21 - 3.0 vs Oregon State 44 11/13/2010 Washington State 31 +23.5 at Oregon State 14 11/21/2009 Oregon State 42 -31.0 at Washington State 10 10/11/2008 Washington State 13 +30.0 at Oregon State 66 11/17/2007 Oregon State 52 + 1.0 at Washington State 17 10/ 7/2006 Washington State 13 - 2.5 at Oregon State 6 10/ 1/2005 Washington State 33 + 2.0 at Oregon State 44 10/23/2004 Washington State 19 + 7.0 at Oregon State 38 10/25/2003 Oregon State 30 + 7.5 at Washington State 36 10/ 6/2001 Oregon State 27 +10.0 at Washington State 34 10/28/2000 Washington State 9 +13.5 at Oregon State 38
There’s been some wild, high scoring games in this series and each team has done it’s share of winning. Oregon State was 6-4 in the series from 2000 to 2010. But over the last decade, Washington State holds an 8-3 edge and has won 7 straight.
But this may be the year Oregon State flips the scales and gets back in the series win column. The Beavers are doing everything right so far.
And the Edge Goes To…
We often mention running games, particularly in matchups like this with low pointspreads. That’s because the running game still remains one of the most important aspects of a successful college football team.
It’s as easy as 1+1 =2. Run the ball well, then stop the run well, equals winning football games. Oregon State gains 5.3 yards per rush attempt and gives up just 3.6. Washington State averages just 3.4 and gives up 4.5. Edge to Oregon State.
The Beavers offensive yards per point number is an above average 12.7. Washington States ypp on offense is a below average 18.2 (real bad). That shows one team is able to convert yards into points while the other struggles. Edge Oregon State. Their ypp numbers defensively are both average.
Our model starts to kick in after around 4 games have been played and gets better and better every week going forward. It’s not uncommon to have our model spit out a score that’s right on the current betting line. But not in this case. Our model has Oregon State on top by 11-15 points. Edge Oregon State.
Lastly, no team wants to be a punching bag for a conference divisional opponent. Oregon State has lost 7 straight. But this year they have a team that’s absolutely good enough to do something about it.
Everything we like to look at favors Oregon State here and revenge multiplied by 7 is the cherry on top.