Free Pick – Utah at USC – College Football – 10/9/21

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utah at usc free college football pick
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USC hosts Utah this week in PAC-12 college football action. The Trojans opened as a -4 point favorite and have been bet down to -3 this week. The current total on the game is 52.5.

USC sits at 3-2, 2-2 in conference play. To date, it’s been a disappointing season. They have suffered through a coaching change and the program in general is in a holding pattern. Coaches and players are uncertain of their futures and that makes things difficult for an otherwise talented bunch.

Utah is also 3-2. They have played just one conference game and sit at 1-0, still very much in the hunt in the PAC-12 South division. Their two losses came against BYU and San Diego State.

Recent History

11/21/2020  Southern Cal             33  - 3.0  at Utah                     17
 9/20/2019  Utah                     23  - 3.5  at Southern Cal             30
10/20/2018  Southern Cal             28  + 7.0  at Utah                     41
10/14/2017  Utah                     27  +13.0  at Southern Cal             28
 9/23/2016  Southern Cal             27  + 3.0  at Utah                     31
10/24/2015  Utah                     24  + 6.5  at Southern Cal             42
10/25/2014  Southern Cal             21  + 0.0  at Utah                     24
10/26/2013  Utah                      3  + 6.0  at Southern Cal             19
10/ 4/2012  Southern Cal             38  -14.0  at Utah                     28
 9/10/2011  Utah                     14  + 8.5  at Southern Cal             23

So we have two teams who both had huge expectations coming into the 2021 college football season, both off to mediocre starts and in somewhat of a desperation mode.

The series has ben competitive as you can see from the games listed above from the last decade. USC has won the last two, so perhaps some added incentive for the Utes here to get back into the win column.

All of the  numbers we like to use in the handicapping process suggest that perhaps USC has the slightest of edges here. That “slight” edge is also reflected in our models prediction, a 1 point USC win.

With all of that in mind, combined with the double revenge factor for Utah, we’re goin grab the field goal with the underdog Utes here in what should be a game decided late.

Utah +3