Free Pick – Oregon State at Washington State – College Football – 10/9/21

oregon state at washington state free cfb pick
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Washington State hosts Oregon State this week in PAC-12 play with the visiting Beavers opened as -2.5 point favorites and have been bet up to -3.5 as of Thursday afternoon. The current posted total is 59.

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Oregon State dropped their first game of the 2021 season to Purdue, 30-21, but since that loss they have been a pleasant surprise, going 4-0. Included in that 4-0 run are wins over USC and Washington. Oregon State currently sits in 1st place in the PAC-12 North.

Washington State is currently 2-3 overall and 1-2 in conference play. It’s still early but the Cougars can’t afford another conference loss. That means big games every week that are essentially must win.

Head to Head History

11/ 7/2020  Washington State         38  + 3.0  at Oregon State             28
11/23/2019  Oregon State             53  +10.5  at Washington State         54
10/ 6/2018  Washington State         56  -17.0  at Oregon State             37
 9/16/2017  Oregon State             23  +20.0  at Washington State         52
10/29/2016  Washington State         35  -13.0  at Oregon State             31
10/17/2015  Oregon State             31  + 7.5  at Washington State         52
11/ 8/2014  Washington State         39  + 9.0  at Oregon State             32
10/12/2013  Oregon State             52  + 0.0  at Washington State         24
10/ 6/2012  Washington State          6  +14.5  at Oregon State             19
10/22/2011  Washington State         21  - 3.0  vs Oregon State             44
11/13/2010  Washington State         31  +23.5  at Oregon State             14
11/21/2009  Oregon State             42  -31.0  at Washington State         10
10/11/2008  Washington State         13  +30.0  at Oregon State             66
11/17/2007  Oregon State             52  + 1.0  at Washington State         17
10/ 7/2006  Washington State         13  - 2.5  at Oregon State              6
10/ 1/2005  Washington State         33  + 2.0  at Oregon State             44
10/23/2004  Washington State         19  + 7.0  at Oregon State             38
10/25/2003  Oregon State             30  + 7.5  at Washington State         36
10/ 6/2001  Oregon State             27  +10.0  at Washington State         34
10/28/2000  Washington State          9  +13.5  at Oregon State             38

There’s been some wild, high scoring games in this series and each team has done it’s share of winning. Oregon State was 6-4 in the series from 2000 to 2010. But over the last decade, Washington State holds an 8-3 edge and has won 7 straight.

But this may be the year Oregon State flips the scales and gets back in the series win column. The Beavers are doing everything right so far.

And the Edge Goes To…

We often mention running games, particularly in matchups like this with low pointspreads. That’s because the running game still remains one of the most important aspects of a successful college football team.

It’s as easy as 1+1 =2. Run the ball well, then stop the run well, equals winning football games. Oregon State gains 5.3 yards per rush attempt and gives up just 3.6. Washington State averages just 3.4 and gives up 4.5. Edge to Oregon State.

The Beavers offensive yards per point number is an above average 12.7. Washington States ypp on offense is a below average 18.2 (real bad). That shows one team is able to convert yards into points while the other struggles. Edge Oregon State. Their ypp numbers defensively are both average.

Our model starts to kick in after around 4 games have been played and gets better and better every week going forward. It’s not uncommon to have our model spit out a score that’s right on the current betting line. But not in this case. Our model has Oregon State on top by 11-15 points. Edge Oregon State.

Lastly, no team wants to be a punching bag for a conference divisional opponent. Oregon State has lost 7 straight. But this year they have a team that’s absolutely good enough to do something about it.

Everything we like to look at favors Oregon State here and revenge multiplied by 7 is the cherry on top.

Oregon State -3.5

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