Iowa State will host Texas in Big 12 college football action Saturday night with kickoff slated for 7:30 pm EST. The Cyclones are favored by -6.5 with a current total of 60.
To say that 2021 has been a disappointment for both of these programs would be an understatement. More so for Texas as they sit at 4-4 overall and 2-3 in conference play. The Longhorns, at this point, are playing for the best bowl game they can get to.
Iowa State on the other hand, still has a shot to make the Big 12 Title game if they win out and other teams cooperate. Not an ideal situation and more than likely they are in the same boat as Texas. Shooting for the best bowl game possible.
Texas – Iowa State Head to Head
11/27/2020 Iowa State 23 - 1.5 at Texas 20
11/16/2019 Texas 21 + 7.0 at Iowa State 23
11/17/2018 Iowa State 10 + 3.0 at Texas 24
9/28/2017 Texas 17 - 5.0 at Iowa State 7
10/15/2016 Iowa State 6 +14.0 at Texas 27
10/31/2015 Texas 0 - 4.0 at Iowa State 24
10/18/2014 Iowa State 45 +11.5 at Texas 48
10/ 3/2013 Texas 31 - 8.0 at Iowa State 30
11/10/2012 Iowa State 7 +10.0 at Texas 33
10/ 1/2011 Texas 37 - 9.0 at Iowa State 14
10/23/2010 Iowa State 28 +21.0 at Texas 21
10/13/2007 Texas 56 -16.5 at Iowa State 3
9/23/2006 Iowa State 14 +25.5 at Texas 37
10/18/2003 Texas 40 -16.5 at Iowa State 19
10/26/2002 Iowa State 10 +11.5 at Texas 21
10/30/1999 Texas 44 -10.5 at Iowa State 41
10/ 3/1998 Iowa State 33 +14.0 at Texas 54
average outcome:
Texas 31.2 Iowa State 19.8
margin = -11.41
time-weighted average outcome:
Texas 22.3 Iowa State 18.5
margin = -3.84
average result when the home team is Iowa State
Texas 30.8 Iowa State 20.1
margin = -10.63
average result when the home team is Texas
Iowa State 19.6 Texas 31.7
margin = 12.11
35.71 % of games went Over
50.00 % went Over at Iowa State
(since 2002 )
average total points per game = 51.06
time-weighted average total = 40.83
the home team covered 41.18 % of the time
the road team covered 58.82 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -1.32
the favorite covered 52.94 % of the time
the underdog covered 47.06 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 0.91
the favorite won SU 88.24 % of the time
Texas covered 52.94 % of the time
Iowa State covered 47.06 % of the time
Iowa State covered 37.50 % of the time at home
Iowa State covered 0.00 % of the time as home favorites
Here are the three predictions from our model using data from the full season, last 4 games and last 7 games, in that order.
Texas 60.5 28 Iowa State -6.5 34 Texas 60.5 31 Iowa State -6.5 40 Texas 60.5 30 Iowa State -6.5 38
As you can see, the model likes Iowa State to win and has the margin right around the current line.
For much of this season, Iowa State has been in the top 5 or 6 in the nation, ON PAPER. It’s a good, solid, talented football team. But they haven’t been able to fully capitalize and those conference losses to West Virginia and Baylor are going to come back to haunt them. As the saying goes, they don’t play the games on paper.
We think this game could go either way. Iowa State hasn’t been able to put good teams away this year. They have been unable to create any significant margins. With that in mind, we’ll grab the points here in a game that the Longhorns could certainly win straight up.