Michigan State at Purdue – Free CFB Pick – 11/6/21

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michigan state at purdue cfb pick
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Purdue will host Michigan State on Saturday afternoon at 3:30 PM EST in what amounts to a huge Big 10 game for both programs. The Spartans are -3 point road favorites with a total of 53.

Michigan State comes into this game undefeated and ranked #5 in the nation. A win this week and then next week against Maryland would set up a monumental clash with the Buckeyes on November 20th. But first things first.

Purdue comes into this game at 5-3 overall and 3-2 in conference play. Fortunately for the Boilermakers, they are  in the Big 10 West. Purdue is still very much in the picture in terms of the Big 10 title game.

It’s worth noting that Purdue took on #2 and undefeated Iowa a few weeks back, at Iowa and came away with a 24-7 win. The Boilermakers are no strangers to big games in 2021.

Michigan State – Purdue Head to Head

10/27/2018  Purdue                   13  + 1.0  at Michigan State           23
10/ 3/2015  Purdue                   21  +23.0  at Michigan State           24
10/11/2014  Michigan State           45  -21.0  at Purdue                   31
10/19/2013  Purdue                    0  +27.5  at Michigan State           14
11/20/2010  Purdue                   31  +20.0  at Michigan State           35
11/14/2009  Michigan State           40  - 2.5  at Purdue                   37
11/ 8/2008  Purdue                    7  + 9.5  at Michigan State           21
11/10/2007  Michigan State           48  + 4.0  at Purdue                   31
11/ 4/2006  Purdue                   17  + 3.0  at Michigan State           15
11/ 5/2005  Michigan State           21  - 5.0  at Purdue                   28
11/16/2002  Purdue                   45  - 4.5  at Michigan State           42
11/17/2001  Michigan State           14  + 3.0  at Purdue                   24
11/11/2000  Purdue                   10  - 8.0  at Michigan State           30
10/16/1999  Michigan State           28  - 2.0  at Purdue                   52
11/14/1998  Purdue                   25  - 2.5  at Michigan State           24
11/ 8/1997  Michigan State           21  + 3.0  at Purdue                   22
 8/31/1996  Purdue                   14  + 3.0  at Michigan State           52
 9/23/1995  Michigan State           35  + 3.0  at Purdue                   35
11/12/1994  Purdue                   30  + 7.5  at Michigan State           42
11/13/1993  Michigan State           27  - 9.0  at Purdue                   24
11/14/1992  Purdue                   13  + 3.5  at Michigan State           35
11/16/1991  Michigan State           17  + 2.0  at Purdue                   27
10/27/1990  Purdue                   33  +25.0  at Michigan State           55
  
   average outcome:
     Michigan State          30.8  Purdue                  24.8
     margin =  -6.00
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Michigan State          26.8  Purdue                  17.8
     margin =  -9.03
  
   average result when the home team is Purdue                 
     Michigan State          29.6  Purdue                  31.1
     margin =   1.50
  
   average result when the home team is Michigan State         
     Purdue                  19.9  Michigan State          31.7
     margin =  11.77
  
    44.44 % of games went Over
    62.50 % went Over at Purdue                 
    (since        1995 )
  
   average total points per game =  55.57
   time-weighted average total   =  44.62
  
   the home team covered  60.87 % of the time
   the road team covered  39.13 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  3.67
  
   the favorite  covered  34.78 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  65.22 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -3.41
  
   the favorite won SU    77.27 % of the time
  
   Michigan State          covered  52.17 % of the time
   Purdue                  covered  47.83 % of the time
  
   Purdue                  covered  60.00 % of the time at home
   Purdue                  covered  80.00 % of the time as home underdogs

You can see from the head to head history that Michigan State has owned Purdue recently, winning the last 8 games. But our model suggests that the outcome this week is very much in doubt, regardless of the time frame parameters used (full season data, last 4 and last 7 games).

Michigan State            -3.0          19           
Purdue                    53.5          19
  
Michigan State            -3.0          18           
Purdue                    53.5          19
  
Michigan State            -3.0          19           
Purdue                    53.5          17

Below are the yards per point numbers for each team

Mich St 12.7 20.6
Purdue  16.9 18.4

The first number is the offensive number and the 2nd the defense. So, Michigan State scores 1 point for every 12.7 yards gained. That shows an offense for Michigan State that is much more efficient than Purdue’s. Both teams have excellent defensive numbers, though the Spartans get the edge their as well.

Yards per play is another stat worthy of your attention. Here, we have Michigan State #15 in the country with a yards per play differential of +1.3 compared to Purdue’s ranking of 75th in the country and a differential of – 0.1.

All of the little edges we look for favor Michigan State here. With any luck, the line drops in our favor as this one does have the potential to be a close one decided late.

At the moment the best money line we see is -145. We’ll wait and see if this number drops between now and kickoff. But we’re on Michigan State in this one and likely on the money line.