Free Pick – Texas at Iowa State – College Football – 11/6/21

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texas at iowa state pick
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Iowa State will host Texas in Big 12 college football action Saturday night with kickoff slated for 7:30 pm EST. The Cyclones are favored by -6.5 with a current total of 60.

To say that 2021 has been a disappointment for both of these programs would be an understatement. More so for Texas as they sit at 4-4 overall and 2-3 in conference play. The Longhorns, at this point, are playing for the best bowl game they can get to.

Iowa State on the other hand, still has a shot to make the Big 12 Title game if they win out and other teams cooperate. Not an ideal situation and more than likely they are in the same boat as Texas. Shooting for the best bowl game possible.

Texas – Iowa State Head to Head

11/27/2020  Iowa State               23  - 1.5  at Texas                    20
11/16/2019  Texas                    21  + 7.0  at Iowa State               23
11/17/2018  Iowa State               10  + 3.0  at Texas                    24
 9/28/2017  Texas                    17  - 5.0  at Iowa State                7
10/15/2016  Iowa State                6  +14.0  at Texas                    27
10/31/2015  Texas                     0  - 4.0  at Iowa State               24
10/18/2014  Iowa State               45  +11.5  at Texas                    48
10/ 3/2013  Texas                    31  - 8.0  at Iowa State               30
11/10/2012  Iowa State                7  +10.0  at Texas                    33
10/ 1/2011  Texas                    37  - 9.0  at Iowa State               14
10/23/2010  Iowa State               28  +21.0  at Texas                    21
10/13/2007  Texas                    56  -16.5  at Iowa State                3
 9/23/2006  Iowa State               14  +25.5  at Texas                    37
10/18/2003  Texas                    40  -16.5  at Iowa State               19
10/26/2002  Iowa State               10  +11.5  at Texas                    21
10/30/1999  Texas                    44  -10.5  at Iowa State               41
10/ 3/1998  Iowa State               33  +14.0  at Texas                    54
  
   average outcome:
     Texas                   31.2  Iowa State              19.8
     margin = -11.41
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Texas                   22.3  Iowa State              18.5
     margin =  -3.84
  
   average result when the home team is Iowa State             
     Texas                   30.8  Iowa State              20.1
     margin = -10.63
  
   average result when the home team is Texas                  
     Iowa State              19.6  Texas                   31.7
     margin =  12.11
  
    35.71 % of games went Over
    50.00 % went Over at Iowa State             
    (since        2002 )
  
   average total points per game =  51.06
   time-weighted average total   =  40.83
  
   the home team covered  41.18 % of the time
   the road team covered  58.82 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -1.32
  
   the favorite  covered  52.94 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  47.06 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  0.91
  
   the favorite won SU    88.24 % of the time
  
   Texas                   covered  52.94 % of the time
   Iowa State              covered  47.06 % of the time
  
   Iowa State              covered  37.50 % of the time at home
   Iowa State              covered   0.00 % of the time as home favorites

Here are the three predictions from our model using data from the full season, last 4 games and last 7 games, in that order.

Texas                     60.5          28           
Iowa State                -6.5          34
  
Texas                     60.5          31           
Iowa State                -6.5          40
  
Texas                     60.5          30           
Iowa State                -6.5          38

As you can see, the model likes Iowa State to win and has the margin right around the current line.

For much of this season, Iowa State has been in the top 5 or 6 in the nation, ON PAPER. It’s a good, solid, talented football team. But they haven’t been able to fully capitalize and those conference losses to West Virginia and Baylor are going to come back to haunt them. As the saying goes, they don’t play the games on paper.

We think this game could go either way. Iowa State hasn’t been able to put good teams away this year. They have been unable to create any significant margins. With that in mind, we’ll grab the points here in a game that the Longhorns could certainly win straight up.

Texas +6.5