Miss State at Auburn Free CFB Pick ATS – 11/13/21

Auburn will host Miss State in SEC football action on Saturday in a game that kicks off at 12 noon EST. Auburn is favored by 5.5 with a total of 51.

In all likelihood, this game is simply two teams trying to qualify for the best bowl game they can, as neither will factor into the SEC race barring a miracle. In fact, Miss State has just 5 wins and still needs to grab one more to become eligible. But with Tennessee State on deck, that likely won’t be a problem either way.

Auburn – Miss State head to Head

12/12/2020  Auburn                   24  - 9.0  at Mississippi State        10
 9/28/2019  Mississippi State        23  + 8.5  at Auburn                   56
10/ 6/2018  Auburn                    9  - 3.5  at Mississippi State        23
 9/30/2017  Mississippi State        10  + 7.5  at Auburn                   49
10/ 8/2016  Auburn                   38  - 3.5  at Mississippi State        14
 9/26/2015  Mississippi State        17  + 2.0  at Auburn                    9
10/11/2014  Auburn                   23  - 2.5  at Mississippi State        38
 9/14/2013  Mississippi State        20  + 6.0  at Auburn                   24
 9/ 8/2012  Auburn                   10  + 3.0  at Mississippi State        28
 9/10/2011  Mississippi State        34  - 5.5  at Auburn                   41
 9/ 9/2010  Auburn                   17  - 1.5  at Mississippi State        14
 9/12/2009  Mississippi State        24  +14.0  at Auburn                   49
 9/13/2008  Auburn                    3  -10.5  at Mississippi State         2
 9/15/2007  Mississippi State        19  +14.0  at Auburn                   14
 9/ 9/2006  Auburn                   34  -21.0  at Mississippi State         0
 9/10/2005  Mississippi State         0  +16.0  at Auburn                   28
 9/11/2004  Auburn                   43  -13.5  at Mississippi State        14
10/18/2003  Mississippi State        13  +22.5  at Auburn                   45
 9/19/2002  Auburn                   42  - 1.0  at Mississippi State        14
10/ 6/2001  Mississippi State        14  + 1.5  at Auburn                   16
10/ 7/2000  Auburn                   10  + 1.0  at Mississippi State        17
10/ 9/1999  Mississippi State        18  - 3.0  at Auburn                   16
10/10/1998  Auburn                   21  + 0.0  at Mississippi State        38
11/ 1/1997  Mississippi State        20  +17.0  at Auburn                    0
10/12/1996  Auburn                   49  -11.0  at Mississippi State        15
10/ 7/1995  Mississippi State        20  +18.0  at Auburn                   48
10/ 8/1994  Auburn                   42  - 2.5  at Mississippi State        18
10/ 9/1993  Mississippi State        17  + 6.5  at Auburn                   31
10/10/1992  Auburn                    7  + 3.5  at Mississippi State        14
10/26/1991  Mississippi State        24  + 6.5  at Auburn                   17
10/27/1990  Auburn                   17  -14.5  at Mississippi State        16
  
   average outcome:
     Mississippi State       17.7  Auburn                  26.8
     margin =   9.16
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Mississippi State       18.0  Auburn                  30.4
     margin =  12.32
  
   average result when the home team is Auburn                 
     Mississippi State       18.2  Auburn                  29.5
     margin =  11.33
  
   average result when the home team is Mississippi State      
     Auburn                  24.3  Mississippi State       17.2
     margin =  -7.13
  
    31.82 % of games went Over
    45.45 % went Over at Auburn                 
    (since        1999 )
  
   average total points per game =  44.52
   time-weighted average total   =  48.40
  
   the home team covered  58.06 % of the time
   the road team covered  41.94 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  0.35
  
   the favorite  covered  63.33 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  36.67 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  4.07
  
   the favorite won SU    76.67 % of the time
  
   Mississippi State       covered  41.94 % of the time
   Auburn                  covered  58.06 % of the time
  
   Auburn                  covered  66.67 % of the time at home
   Auburn                  covered  61.54 % of the time as home favorites

Here are 3 score predictions from our model. The 1st score uses season to date data. The 2nd score uses data from the last 4 games and the 3rd score uses data from the last 7 games.

Mississippi State         51.5          19           
Auburn                    -5.0          29
  
Mississippi State         51.5          17           
Auburn                    -5.0          23
  
Mississippi State         51.5          19           
Auburn                    -5.0          26