Baylor hosts West Virginia Saturday at 12 noon EST in Big 12 college football action. Baylor is listed as a slight -2.5 point home favorite with a current posted total of 44.5. You can watch all the action on FOX Sports 1.
West Virginia comes into this game at 2-3 overall. But more importantly, the Mountaineers are 0-2 in conference play and sitting in the basement. That makes this an early season must win for West Virginia.
West Virginia beat Virginia Tech and LIU. Their 3 losses came to Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Maryland. Every loss was by one score, the Oklahoma and Texas Tech losses by just 3 points.
Baylor comes into this game at 4-1. They are 2-1 in conference play and very much in the thick of things in the Big 12. Their schedule strength though, comes into question. Their first 3 games were against Texas State, Texas Southern and Kansas. They then beat Iowa State by 2 and lost to Oklahoma State by 10.
Head to Head History
10/ 3/2020 Baylor 21 - 1.5 at West Virginia 27 10/31/2019 West Virginia 14 +19.0 at Baylor 17 10/25/2018 Baylor 14 +13.5 at West Virginia 58 10/21/2017 West Virginia 38 - 9.5 at Baylor 36 12/ 3/2016 Baylor 21 +17.5 at West Virginia 24 10/17/2015 West Virginia 38 +20.5 at Baylor 62 10/18/2014 Baylor 27 - 8.0 at West Virginia 41 10/ 5/2013 West Virginia 42 +28.5 at Baylor 73 9/29/2012 Baylor 63 +11.0 at West Virginia 70 average outcome: West Virginia 39.1 Baylor 37.1 margin = -2.00 time-weighted average outcome: West Virginia 34.2 Baylor 28.5 margin = -5.69 average result when the home team is Baylor West Virginia 33.0 Baylor 47.0 margin = 14.00 average result when the home team is West Virginia Baylor 29.2 West Virginia 44.0 margin = 14.80 55.56 % of games went Over 75.00 % went Over at Baylor average total points per game = 76.22 time-weighted average total = 62.67 the home team covered 66.67 % of the time the road team covered 33.33 % of the time Ave ATS differential = 4.33 the favorite covered 33.33 % of the time the underdog covered 66.67 % of the time Ave ATS differential = -3.89 the favorite won SU 77.78 % of the time West Virginia covered 44.44 % of the time Baylor covered 55.56 % of the time Baylor covered 75.00 % of the time at home Baylor covered 66.67 % of the time as home favorites
It seems like just yesterday that these two teams were scoring over 100+ points combined when they hooked up. Now we have a total of just 44.5 points.
Our model also has this as a low scoring affair with a predicted total of between 35 to 41 points and a narrow Baylor win.
With points expected to be at a premium and West Virginia’s knack for playing 1 score games, it’s not the kind of game where we’re comfortable laying points. We see a couple of +3’s on the board and that may be just be enough for the Mountaineers to get the cover in a game where a straight up win is certainly on the table.