West Virginia at Baylor – Free College Football Pick ATS – 10/9/21

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west virginia at baylor pick
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Baylor hosts West Virginia Saturday at 12 noon EST in Big 12 college football action. Baylor is listed as a slight -2.5 point home favorite with a current posted total of 44.5. You can watch all the action on FOX Sports 1.

West Virginia comes into this game at 2-3 overall. But more importantly, the Mountaineers are 0-2 in conference play and sitting in the basement. That makes this an early season must win for West Virginia.

West Virginia beat Virginia Tech and LIU. Their 3 losses came to Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Maryland. Every loss was by one score, the Oklahoma and Texas Tech losses by just 3 points.

Baylor comes into this game at 4-1. They are 2-1 in conference play and very much in the thick of things in the Big 12. Their schedule strength though, comes into question. Their first 3 games were against Texas State, Texas Southern and Kansas. They then beat Iowa State by 2 and lost to Oklahoma State by 10.

Head to Head History

10/ 3/2020  Baylor                   21  - 1.5  at West Virginia            27
10/31/2019  West Virginia            14  +19.0  at Baylor                   17
10/25/2018  Baylor                   14  +13.5  at West Virginia            58
10/21/2017  West Virginia            38  - 9.5  at Baylor                   36
12/ 3/2016  Baylor                   21  +17.5  at West Virginia            24
10/17/2015  West Virginia            38  +20.5  at Baylor                   62
10/18/2014  Baylor                   27  - 8.0  at West Virginia            41
10/ 5/2013  West Virginia            42  +28.5  at Baylor                   73
 9/29/2012  Baylor                   63  +11.0  at West Virginia            70
  
   average outcome:
     West Virginia           39.1  Baylor                  37.1
     margin =  -2.00
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     West Virginia           34.2  Baylor                  28.5
     margin =  -5.69
  
   average result when the home team is Baylor                 
     West Virginia           33.0  Baylor                  47.0
     margin =  14.00
  
   average result when the home team is West Virginia          
     Baylor                  29.2  West Virginia           44.0
     margin =  14.80
  
    55.56 % of games went Over
    75.00 % went Over at Baylor                 
  
   average total points per game =  76.22
   time-weighted average total   =  62.67
  
   the home team covered  66.67 % of the time
   the road team covered  33.33 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  4.33
  
   the favorite  covered  33.33 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  66.67 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -3.89
  
   the favorite won SU    77.78 % of the time
  
   West Virginia           covered  44.44 % of the time
   Baylor                  covered  55.56 % of the time
  
   Baylor                  covered  75.00 % of the time at home
   Baylor                  covered  66.67 % of the time as home favorites

Our Pick

It seems like just yesterday that these two teams were scoring over 100+ points combined when they hooked up. Now we have a total of just 44.5 points.

Our model also has this as a low scoring affair with a predicted total of between 35 to 41 points and a narrow Baylor win.

With points expected to be at a premium and West Virginia’s knack for playing 1 score games, it’s not the kind of game where we’re comfortable laying points. We see a couple of +3’s on the board and that may be just be enough for the Mountaineers to get the cover in a game where a straight up win is certainly on the table.

West Virginia +3

UNDER 44.4