Wisconsin at Illinois Free College Football Pick ATS – 10/9/21

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wisconsin at illinois free cfb
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Illinois will host Wisconsin in BIG 10 College football action this Saturday. The Badgers opened as -8.5 point favorites and have been bet up to -11 in spots. The current total is 42.5.

Wisconsin is off to a disappointing start in 2021. They are 1-3, losing games to Michigan, Notre Dame and Penn State. Their lone win came against Eastern Michigan. The Badgers are 0-2 in conference play and in last place in the Big 10 West.

Illinois comes in at 2-4 overall and 1-2 in conference play, ahead of the Badgers in the standings. The Illini beat Nebraska in their opener and also Charlotte last week. Their losses came to Purdue, Virginia, Maryland and UTSA.

Head to Head History

10/23/2020  Illinois                  7  +20.0  at Wisconsin                45
10/19/2019  Wisconsin                23  -30.5  at Illinois                 24
10/20/2018  Illinois                 20  +24.0  at Wisconsin                49
10/28/2017  Wisconsin                24  -28.5  at Illinois                 10
11/12/2016  Illinois                  3  +25.0  at Wisconsin                48
10/24/2015  Wisconsin                24  - 6.0  at Illinois                 13
10/11/2014  Illinois                 28  +26.5  at Wisconsin                38
10/19/2013  Wisconsin                56  -14.5  at Illinois                 32
10/ 6/2012  Illinois                 14  +14.0  at Wisconsin                31
11/19/2011  Wisconsin                28  -14.5  at Illinois                 17
10/25/2008  Illinois                 17  - 2.5  at Wisconsin                27
10/ 6/2007  Wisconsin                26  + 1.0  at Illinois                 31
10/28/2006  Illinois                 24  +23.0  at Wisconsin                30
10/29/2005  Wisconsin                41  -19.5  at Illinois                 24
10/ 2/2004  Illinois                  7  +14.5  at Wisconsin                24
 9/27/2003  Wisconsin                38  - 2.5  at Illinois                 20
11/ 9/2002  Illinois                 37  + 8.5  at Wisconsin                20
10/20/2001  Wisconsin                35  + 4.5  at Illinois                 42
10/17/1998  Wisconsin                37  -21.0  at Illinois                  3
10/11/1997  Illinois                  7  +14.0  at Wisconsin                31
11/23/1996  Wisconsin                35  - 7.0  at Illinois                 15
11/25/1995  Illinois                  3  + 2.5  at Wisconsin                 3
11/19/1994  Illinois                 13  + 3.0  at Wisconsin                19
11/20/1993  Wisconsin                35  - 1.0  at Illinois                 10
10/31/1992  Illinois                 13  + 5.5  at Wisconsin                12
11/ 2/1991  Wisconsin                 6  +17.5  at Illinois                 22
10/27/1990  Illinois                 21  -21.0  at Wisconsin                 3
  
   average outcome:
     Wisconsin               29.2  Illinois                17.7
     margin = -11.52
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Wisconsin               36.6  Illinois                15.3
     margin = -21.31
  
   average result when the home team is Illinois               
     Wisconsin               31.4  Illinois                20.2
     margin = -11.15
  
   average result when the home team is Wisconsin              
     Illinois                15.3  Wisconsin               27.1
     margin =  11.86
  
    61.11 % of games went Over
    55.56 % went Over at Illinois               
    (since        2001 )
  
   average total points per game =  46.85
   time-weighted average total   =  51.94
  
   the home team covered  55.56 % of the time
   the road team covered  44.44 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -0.52
  
   the favorite  covered  55.56 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  44.44 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  0.41
  
   the favorite won SU    84.62 % of the time
  
   Wisconsin               covered  59.26 % of the time
   Illinois                covered  40.74 % of the time
  
   Illinois                covered  46.15 % of the time at home
   Illinois                covered  40.00 % of the time as home underdogs

Wisconsin Ready to Explode?

This series is a good one to illustrate talent gaps. Scroll through the history between these teams and you’ll see the odd year or two here and there where Illinois won. But for the most part it’s a series dominated by Wisconsin who will simply always have the better talent.

You have to take into consideration Wisconsin’s schedule so far this year. It’s been one of the toughest in college football so far. They outgained both Penn State and Notre Dame, despite losing. They just might find this Illinois defense to their liking.

Our model predicts a close low scoring game. But we’re going to stay away from this one. We feel this is a spot where Wisconsin could very well come to life and take out their early season frustrations on the Illini.

We’d lean towards under the total here but also think this could be risky. If in fact Wisconsin does come to life here, they could very well exceed the total by themselves. It’s still a talented football team despite their slow start against tough opposition.

This game is a pass for us.