#3 Alabama will visit #6 Tennessee in what will be this weeks highest profile game. The Tide opened as -7.5 point favorites and as of early in the week there are a mix of 7’s and 7.5’s on the board. The total is 65 at GTBets.
This series has been dominated by Alabama over the last 15 years. The Tide have won 15 straight and just about every game has been a blowout. It’s a domination that you just can’t ignore when looking at this game. Here’s a look at the head to head history.
Head to Head
10/23/2021 Tennessee 24 +25.5 at Alabama 52
10/24/2020 Alabama 48 -22.0 at Tennessee 17
10/19/2019 Tennessee 13 +34.5 at Alabama 35
10/20/2018 Alabama 58 -29.5 at Tennessee 21
10/21/2017 Tennessee 7 +36.5 at Alabama 45
10/15/2016 Alabama 49 -13.5 at Tennessee 10
10/24/2015 Tennessee 14 +15.0 at Alabama 19
10/25/2014 Alabama 34 -19.0 at Tennessee 20
10/26/2013 Tennessee 10 +28.0 at Alabama 45
10/20/2012 Alabama 44 -20.0 at Tennessee 13
10/22/2011 Tennessee 6 +30.0 at Alabama 37
10/23/2010 Alabama 41 -16.5 at Tennessee 10
10/24/2009 Tennessee 10 +14.0 at Alabama 12
10/25/2008 Alabama 29 - 6.5 at Tennessee 9
10/20/2007 Tennessee 17 + 1.0 at Alabama 41
10/21/2006 Alabama 13 +11.0 at Tennessee 16
10/22/2005 Tennessee 3 + 3.5 at Alabama 6
10/23/2004 Alabama 13 + 7.0 at Tennessee 17
10/25/2003 Tennessee 51 - 4.0 at Alabama 43
10/26/2002 Alabama 34 + 3.0 at Tennessee 14
10/20/2001 Tennessee 35 - 1.0 at Alabama 24
10/21/2000 Alabama 10 + 3.0 at Tennessee 20
10/23/1999 Tennessee 21 - 3.0 at Alabama 7
10/24/1998 Alabama 18 +17.5 at Tennessee 35
10/18/1997 Tennessee 38 - 8.5 ~@ Alabama 21
10/26/1996 Alabama 13 +14.0 at Tennessee 20
10/14/1995 Tennessee 41 - 4.5 ~@ Alabama 14
10/15/1994 Alabama 17 + 5.0 at Tennessee 13
10/16/1993 Tennessee 17 + 5.0 ~@ Alabama 17
10/17/1992 Alabama 17 + 0.0 at Tennessee 10
10/19/1991 Tennessee 19 + 2.0 ~@ Alabama 24
10/20/1990 Alabama 9 +11.0 at Tennessee 6
average outcome:
Alabama 27.8 Tennessee 18.0
margin = -9.75
time-weighted average outcome:
Alabama 44.1 Tennessee 16.5
margin = -27.62
average result when the home team is Tennessee
Alabama 27.9 Tennessee 15.7
margin = -12.25
average result when the home team is Alabama
Tennessee 17.6 Alabama 30.5
margin = 12.92
52.00 % of games went Over
50.00 % went Over at Tennessee
(since 1995 )
average total points per game = 45.81
time-weighted average total = 60.60
the home team covered 25.00 % of the time
the road team covered 75.00 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -6.20
the favorite covered 58.06 % of the time
the underdog covered 41.94 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 2.11
the favorite won SU 90.00 % of the time
Alabama covered 62.50 % of the time
Tennessee covered 37.50 % of the time
Tennessee covered 12.50 % of the time at home
Tennessee covered 14.29 % of the time as home underdogs
We stress the running game when writing up these games because that’s what wins football games.
Here are the top 10 teams in the country using rushing yards per attempt differential. The number of yards gained and then subtract the number of yards given up per rushing attempt. The number next to the team is the differential.
ALA 4.6
TCU 3.3
MICH 2.8
JM 2.8
CLE 2.6
GA 2.2
MIS 2.2
ILL 2.1
CC 2.1
TEN 1.9
And here are the bottom 10 teams.
COLST -2.1
BUF -2.2
ARK ST -2.2
CHAR -2.3
AKR -2.6
TEXST -2.6
HAW -2.7
STAN -2.7
COL -3.4
LATECH -4
What you’ll notice is that the list on top contains some of the best teams in the country while the worst rushing teams are among the worst. You’ll also find teams that cover the spread in the top list and some very bad spread records among the bottom teams.
Run the ball. Stop the run. Win football games.
Alabama’s differential of 4.6 is off the charts good. It makes the Tide tough to bet against for sure. But also note that the Vols crack the top 10 as well with a +1.9 differential.
But we also can’t ignore some of the easy opponents these teams have played. For Alabama, they count among their wins Utah State, La Monroe and Vanderbilt. For the Vols, they beat Ball State and Akron.
In both cases, when you remove the cupcakes you’re left with 3 games for each of these teams against legitimate opponents and the results are similar. They both had two close wins and one win where they extended a margin.
If you’re backing the Vols you have to be encouraged by Alabama’s games against Texas and Texas A&M. More so the Aggies game because Texas A&M had no offensive production to speak of heading into the game but managed to move the ball and came within a hair of the upset.
The Vols come in with some of the best offensive and defensive numbers in the country. They figure to be Alabama’s biggest test to date, on par with Texas which was a 20-19 win for the Tide.
Huge game in Knoxville. The biggest in years. National Title implications for both teams. A win here for Tennessee and the rest of the way could be smooth sailing with the exception of Georgia in a few weeks.
Alabama is the better team until proven otherwise. Afterall, they have dominated for 15 years and it hasn’t been close. But we like our chances here getting +7.5 in this spot in what amounts to the most important college football game to this point in 2022.
We also like the under.
Tennessee +7
UNDER 65