Alabama at Tennessee CFB Free Pick – 10-15

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alabama at tennessee pick
alabama at tennessee pick
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#3 Alabama will visit #6 Tennessee in what will be this weeks highest profile game. The Tide opened as -7.5 point favorites and as of early in the week there are a mix of 7’s and 7.5’s on the board. The total is 65 at GTBets.

This series has been dominated by Alabama over the last 15 years. The Tide have won 15 straight and just about every game has been a blowout. It’s a domination that you just can’t ignore when looking at this game. Here’s a look at the head to head history.

Head to Head

10/23/2021  Tennessee                24  +25.5  at Alabama                  52
10/24/2020  Alabama                  48  -22.0  at Tennessee                17
10/19/2019  Tennessee                13  +34.5  at Alabama                  35
10/20/2018  Alabama                  58  -29.5  at Tennessee                21
10/21/2017  Tennessee                 7  +36.5  at Alabama                  45
10/15/2016  Alabama                  49  -13.5  at Tennessee                10
10/24/2015  Tennessee                14  +15.0  at Alabama                  19
10/25/2014  Alabama                  34  -19.0  at Tennessee                20
10/26/2013  Tennessee                10  +28.0  at Alabama                  45
10/20/2012  Alabama                  44  -20.0  at Tennessee                13
10/22/2011  Tennessee                 6  +30.0  at Alabama                  37
10/23/2010  Alabama                  41  -16.5  at Tennessee                10
10/24/2009  Tennessee                10  +14.0  at Alabama                  12
10/25/2008  Alabama                  29  - 6.5  at Tennessee                 9
10/20/2007  Tennessee                17  + 1.0  at Alabama                  41
10/21/2006  Alabama                  13  +11.0  at Tennessee                16
10/22/2005  Tennessee                 3  + 3.5  at Alabama                   6
10/23/2004  Alabama                  13  + 7.0  at Tennessee                17
10/25/2003  Tennessee                51  - 4.0  at Alabama                  43
10/26/2002  Alabama                  34  + 3.0  at Tennessee                14
10/20/2001  Tennessee                35  - 1.0  at Alabama                  24
10/21/2000  Alabama                  10  + 3.0  at Tennessee                20
10/23/1999  Tennessee                21  - 3.0  at Alabama                   7
10/24/1998  Alabama                  18  +17.5  at Tennessee                35
10/18/1997  Tennessee                38  - 8.5  ~@ Alabama                  21
10/26/1996  Alabama                  13  +14.0  at Tennessee                20
10/14/1995  Tennessee                41  - 4.5  ~@ Alabama                  14
10/15/1994  Alabama                  17  + 5.0  at Tennessee                13
10/16/1993  Tennessee                17  + 5.0  ~@ Alabama                  17
10/17/1992  Alabama                  17  + 0.0  at Tennessee                10
10/19/1991  Tennessee                19  + 2.0  ~@ Alabama                  24
10/20/1990  Alabama                   9  +11.0  at Tennessee                 6
  
   average outcome:
     Alabama                 27.8  Tennessee               18.0
     margin =  -9.75
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Alabama                 44.1  Tennessee               16.5
     margin = -27.62
  
   average result when the home team is Tennessee              
     Alabama                 27.9  Tennessee               15.7
     margin = -12.25
  
   average result when the home team is Alabama                
     Tennessee               17.6  Alabama                 30.5
     margin =  12.92
  
    52.00 % of games went Over
    50.00 % went Over at Tennessee              
    (since        1995 )
  
   average total points per game =  45.81
   time-weighted average total   =  60.60
  
   the home team covered  25.00 % of the time
   the road team covered  75.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -6.20
  
   the favorite  covered  58.06 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  41.94 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  2.11
  
   the favorite won SU    90.00 % of the time
  
   Alabama                 covered  62.50 % of the time
   Tennessee               covered  37.50 % of the time
  
   Tennessee               covered  12.50 % of the time at home
   Tennessee               covered  14.29 % of the time as home underdogs

We stress the running game when writing up these games because that’s what wins football games.

Here are the top 10 teams in the country using rushing yards per attempt differential. The number of yards gained and then subtract the number of yards given up per rushing attempt. The number next to the team is the differential.

ALA 4.6
TCU 3.3
MICH 2.8
JM 2.8
CLE 2.6
GA 2.2
MIS 2.2
ILL 2.1
CC 2.1
TEN 1.9

And here are the bottom 10 teams.

COLST -2.1
BUF -2.2
ARK ST -2.2
CHAR -2.3
AKR -2.6
TEXST -2.6
HAW -2.7
STAN -2.7
COL -3.4
LATECH -4

What you’ll notice is that the list on top contains some of the best teams in the country while the worst rushing teams are among the worst. You’ll also find teams that cover the spread in the top list and some very bad spread records among the bottom teams.

Run the ball. Stop the run. Win football games.

Alabama’s differential of 4.6 is off the charts good. It makes the Tide tough to bet against for sure. But also note that the Vols crack the top 10 as well with a +1.9 differential.

But we also can’t ignore some of the easy opponents these teams have played. For Alabama, they count among their wins Utah State, La Monroe and Vanderbilt. For the Vols, they beat Ball State and Akron.

In both cases, when you remove the cupcakes you’re left with 3 games for each of these teams against legitimate opponents and the results are similar. They both had two close wins and one win where they extended a margin.

If you’re backing the Vols you have to be encouraged by Alabama’s games against Texas and Texas A&M. More so the Aggies game because Texas A&M had no offensive production to speak of heading into the game but managed to move the ball and came within a hair of the upset.

The Vols come in with some of the best offensive and defensive numbers in the country. They figure to be Alabama’s biggest test to date, on par with Texas which was a 20-19 win for the Tide.

Huge game in Knoxville. The biggest in years. National Title implications for both teams. A win here for Tennessee and the rest of the way could be smooth sailing with the exception of Georgia in a few weeks.

Alabama is the better team until proven otherwise. Afterall, they have dominated for 15 years and it hasn’t been close. But we like our chances here getting +7.5 in this spot in what amounts to the most important college football game to this point in 2022.

We also like the under.

Tennessee +7

UNDER 65

 

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