Army and Navy will have the college football world to themselves this weekend, as they should, as they line up for their annual clash. It’s a great game every year regardless of the teams records. This year, Army comes in at 5-6 while Navy is 4-7. Neither team will be going go a Bowl game but a win Saturday will make the 2022 season a whole lot better for one of these teams.
Navy is currently favored by -2.5 with a total of 32.5.
Here is a look at the head to head series history going back to 1990.
Head to Head
12/11/2021 Navy 17 + 7.0 vs Army 13
12/12/2020 Navy 0 + 5.5 vs Army 15
12/14/2019 Navy 31 -10.5 vs Army 7
12/ 8/2018 Navy 10 + 7.0 vs Army 17
12/ 9/2017 Navy 13 - 2.5 vs Army 14
12/10/2016 Navy 17 - 6.5 vs Army 21
12/12/2015 Navy 21 -21.5 vs Army 17
12/13/2014 Navy 17 -15.0 vs Army 10
12/14/2013 Navy 34 -13.0 vs Army 7
12/ 8/2012 Navy 17 - 7.0 vs Army 13
12/10/2011 Navy 27 - 7.0 vs Army 21
12/11/2010 Navy 31 - 7.5 vs Army 17
12/12/2009 Navy 17 -14.5 vs Army 3
12/ 6/2008 Navy 34 -11.0 vs Army 0
12/ 1/2007 Navy 38 -14.0 vs Army 3
12/ 2/2006 Navy 26 -19.5 vs Army 14
12/ 3/2005 Navy 42 - 4.0 vs Army 23
12/ 4/2004 Navy 42 -12.0 vs Army 13
12/ 6/2003 Navy 34 -23.0 vs Army 6
12/ 7/2002 Navy 58 - 3.0 vs Army 12
12/ 1/2001 Navy 17 + 2.0 vs Army 26
12/ 2/2000 Navy 30 + 3.0 vs Army 28
12/ 4/1999 Navy 19 - 6.5 vs Army 9
12/ 5/1998 Navy 30 + 6.5 vs Army 34
12/ 6/1997 Navy 39 -13.5 vs Army 7
12/ 7/1996 Navy 24 - 2.0 vs Army 28
12/ 2/1995 Navy 13 + 2.5 vs Army 14
12/ 3/1994 Navy 20 + 2.5 vs Army 22
12/ 4/1993 Navy 14 + 1.5 vs Army 16
12/ 5/1992 Navy 24 + 3.5 vs Army 25
12/ 7/1991 Navy 24 +10.0 vs Army 3
12/ 8/1990 Navy 20 + 6.0 vs Army 30
average outcome:
Navy 25.0 Army 15.3
margin = -9.75
time-weighted average outcome:
Navy 16.0 Army 13.9
margin = -2.14
23.08 % of games went Over
(since 1995 )
average total points per game = 40.25
time-weighted average total = 29.91
the favorite covered 48.39 % of the time
the underdog covered 51.61 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 2.89
the favorite won SU 81.25 % of the time
Navy covered 58.06 % of the time
Army covered 41.94 % of the time
Here’s the way our model sees this game using 3 different time frame parameters for data.
Navy 0.0 22 NEUTRAL Army 32.5 20 full season data Navy 0.0 15 NEUTRAL Army 32.5 13 last 4 games data Navy 0.0 26 NEUTRAL Army 32.5 19 last 7 games data
As you can see NAVY gets the nod in all 3 predictions. When using data from the last 7 games the margin increases to a TD.
Overall Navy has played the more difficult schedule by more than 7 points which is significant. They’ve also played admirably against some very good teams such as their 35-32 loss to Notre Dame.
Both teams obviously are run oriented but Navy does that better than Army as their +0.8 rushing yards per attempt differential shows. Army is -0.1 and again, Navy has done that against better teams.
We’ll take Navy here. We’re late to the partly on this one as earlier in the week we could have had +1.5 with Navy. But it is what it is. We’ll lay the bad number and hope it’s not decided by 1!!
We also have an extremely low total here and perhaps rightfully so if you take a glance at the last 3 or 4 years of this game. But we think the OVER gets there in this one and that’s backed by 2 of the 3 predictions from our model.