Army vs. Navy College Football Pick ATS – 12-10

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army vs. navy football pick
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Army and Navy will have the college football world to themselves this weekend, as they should, as they line up for their annual clash. It’s a great game every year regardless of the teams records. This year, Army comes in at 5-6 while Navy is 4-7. Neither team will be going go a Bowl game but a win Saturday will make the 2022 season a whole lot better for one of these teams.

Navy is currently favored by -2.5 with a total of 32.5.

Here is a look at the head to head series history going back to 1990.

Head to Head

12/11/2021  Navy                     17  + 7.0  vs Army                     13
12/12/2020  Navy                      0  + 5.5  vs Army                     15
12/14/2019  Navy                     31  -10.5  vs Army                      7
12/ 8/2018  Navy                     10  + 7.0  vs Army                     17
12/ 9/2017  Navy                     13  - 2.5  vs Army                     14
12/10/2016  Navy                     17  - 6.5  vs Army                     21
12/12/2015  Navy                     21  -21.5  vs Army                     17
12/13/2014  Navy                     17  -15.0  vs Army                     10
12/14/2013  Navy                     34  -13.0  vs Army                      7
12/ 8/2012  Navy                     17  - 7.0  vs Army                     13
12/10/2011  Navy                     27  - 7.0  vs Army                     21
12/11/2010  Navy                     31  - 7.5  vs Army                     17
12/12/2009  Navy                     17  -14.5  vs Army                      3
12/ 6/2008  Navy                     34  -11.0  vs Army                      0
12/ 1/2007  Navy                     38  -14.0  vs Army                      3
12/ 2/2006  Navy                     26  -19.5  vs Army                     14
12/ 3/2005  Navy                     42  - 4.0  vs Army                     23
12/ 4/2004  Navy                     42  -12.0  vs Army                     13
12/ 6/2003  Navy                     34  -23.0  vs Army                      6
12/ 7/2002  Navy                     58  - 3.0  vs Army                     12
12/ 1/2001  Navy                     17  + 2.0  vs Army                     26
12/ 2/2000  Navy                     30  + 3.0  vs Army                     28
12/ 4/1999  Navy                     19  - 6.5  vs Army                      9
12/ 5/1998  Navy                     30  + 6.5  vs Army                     34
12/ 6/1997  Navy                     39  -13.5  vs Army                      7
12/ 7/1996  Navy                     24  - 2.0  vs Army                     28
12/ 2/1995  Navy                     13  + 2.5  vs Army                     14
12/ 3/1994  Navy                     20  + 2.5  vs Army                     22
12/ 4/1993  Navy                     14  + 1.5  vs Army                     16
12/ 5/1992  Navy                     24  + 3.5  vs Army                     25
12/ 7/1991  Navy                     24  +10.0  vs Army                      3
12/ 8/1990  Navy                     20  + 6.0  vs Army                     30
  
   average outcome:
     Navy                    25.0  Army                    15.3
     margin =  -9.75
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Navy                    16.0  Army                    13.9
     margin =  -2.14
  
    23.08 % of games went Over
    (since        1995 )
  
   average total points per game =  40.25
   time-weighted average total   =  29.91
  
   the favorite  covered  48.39 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  51.61 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  2.89
  
   the favorite won SU    81.25 % of the time
  
   Navy                    covered  58.06 % of the time
   Army                    covered  41.94 % of the time

Here’s the way our model sees this game using 3 different time frame parameters for data.

Navy                       0.0          22   NEUTRAL 
Army                      32.5          20 full season data
  
Navy                       0.0          15   NEUTRAL 
Army                      32.5          13 last 4 games data
  
Navy                       0.0          26   NEUTRAL 
Army                      32.5          19 last 7 games data

As you can see NAVY gets the nod in all 3 predictions. When using data from the last 7 games the margin increases to a TD.

Overall Navy has played the more difficult schedule by more than 7 points which is significant. They’ve also played admirably against some very good teams such as their 35-32 loss to Notre Dame.

Both teams obviously are run oriented but Navy does that better than Army as their +0.8 rushing yards per attempt differential shows. Army is -0.1 and again, Navy has done that against better teams.

We’ll take Navy here. We’re late to the partly on this one as earlier in the week we could have had +1.5 with Navy. But it is what it is. We’ll lay the bad number and hope it’s not decided by 1!!

We also have an extremely low total here and perhaps rightfully so if you take a glance at the last 3 or 4 years of this game. But we think the OVER gets there in this one and that’s backed by 2 of the 3 predictions from our model.

NAVY -2

ARMY/NAVY OVER 32

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