On Friday night November 4th the Washington Huskies will host the Oregon State Beavers in what could be one of the better games of the week. The Huskies are currently -4.5 point favorites with a total of 54.5.
Both teams come in at 6-2 overall and 3-2 in conference play. There’s 4 teams in front of them at 5-0, 5-1 and 4-2 in the PAC 12 standings. In all likelihood these two are playing for the best bowl game they can get. But stranger things have happened and the winner here keeps themselves alive and in contention in the PAC-12.
Over the last decade this series has been all Washington. They are 10-2 in that stretch winning by an average score of 35-20. They are also 6-0 at home. It’s been a streaky series. From 2004 to 2009 Oregon State won 5 in a row and 6 of 7 thru 2011. Starting in 2012 the Huskies won 9 in a row but that streak ended last year with a 27-24 Beavers win.
Is this the start of a new streak for Oregon State?
Head to Head History
10/ 2/2021 Washington 24 + 1.5 at Oregon State 27 11/14/2020 Oregon State 21 +14.0 at Washington 27 11/ 8/2019 Washington 19 -10.0 at Oregon State 7 11/17/2018 Oregon State 23 +33.5 at Washington 42 9/30/2017 Washington 42 -27.5 at Oregon State 7 10/22/2016 Oregon State 17 +36.5 at Washington 41 11/21/2015 Washington 52 -15.0 at Oregon State 7 11/22/2014 Oregon State 13 + 6.5 at Washington 37 11/23/2013 Washington 69 - 1.5 at Oregon State 27 10/27/2012 Oregon State 17 - 3.5 at Washington 20 11/19/2011 Washington 21 - 2.0 at Oregon State 38 10/16/2010 Oregon State 34 + 2.0 at Washington 35 11/14/2009 Washington 21 +13.5 at Oregon State 48 10/18/2008 Oregon State 34 -16.0 at Washington 13 11/10/2007 Washington 23 + 5.0 at Oregon State 29 10/14/2006 Oregon State 27 + 9.0 at Washington 17 11/ 5/2005 Oregon State 18 - 4.0 at Washington 10 10/16/2004 Oregon State 29 - 6.0 at Washington 14 10/18/2003 Washington 38 +10.0 at Oregon State 17 11/ 9/2002 Oregon State 29 - 1.0 at Washington 41 11/10/2001 Washington 24 - 3.0 at Oregon State 49 10/ 7/2000 Oregon State 30 +10.0 at Washington 33 10/ 9/1999 Washington 47 - 2.5 at Oregon State 21 10/24/1998 Oregon State 34 +16.5 at Washington 35 10/25/1997 Washington 45 -21.5 at Oregon State 17 11/ 9/1996 Oregon State 3 +23.0 at Washington 42 9/30/1995 Washington 26 - 7.5 at Oregon State 16 10/29/1994 Oregon State 10 +15.0 at Washington 24 11/ 6/1993 Washington 28 -14.0 at Oregon State 21 11/14/1992 Oregon State 16 +34.5 at Washington 45 11/16/1991 Washington 58 -43.5 at Oregon State 6
Oregon State QB Chance Nolan remains questionable. He sat the last 3 games.
Here’s a look at the way our model sees this game using 3 different time frame parameters.
Oregon State 60.5 35 Washington -4.0 31 full season data Oregon State 60.5 36 Washington -4.0 24 last 4 games Oregon State 60.5 35 Washington -4.0 32 last 7 games
The model takes into account who the teams have played in that stretch along with various other metrics.
As you can see, it’s an across the board sweep and we agree with the model here. Oregon State has a sound defense. Their rushing yards per attempt differential ranks 25th of all teams in action this week at +1 (wash #48 at +0.3). That stat alone can indicate a “live dog” scenario.
All indications here are that Oregon State is a live dog. They’ll have to overcome the Washington home crowd which no doubt will be hyped more than usual as it’s a Friday night affair, but it’s a chance for Oregon State to turn the tables and start a series winning streak of their own. They have the talent to do so as last years result also indicates.