Oregon State at Washington CFB Pick – Friday 11-4

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oregon state at washington cfb pick ats
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On Friday night November 4th the Washington Huskies will host the Oregon State Beavers in what could be one of the better games of the week. The Huskies are currently -4.5 point favorites with a total of 54.5.

Both teams come in at 6-2 overall and 3-2 in conference play. There’s 4 teams in front of them at 5-0, 5-1 and 4-2 in the PAC 12 standings. In all likelihood these two are playing for the best bowl game they can get. But stranger things have happened and the winner here keeps themselves alive and in contention in the PAC-12.

Over the last decade this series has been all Washington. They are 10-2 in that stretch winning by an average score of 35-20. They are also 6-0 at home. It’s been a streaky series. From 2004 to 2009 Oregon State won 5 in a row and 6 of 7 thru 2011. Starting in 2012 the Huskies won 9 in a row but that streak ended last year with a 27-24 Beavers win.

Is this the start of a new streak for Oregon State?

Head to Head History

10/ 2/2021  Washington               24  + 1.5  at Oregon State             27
11/14/2020  Oregon State             21  +14.0  at Washington               27
11/ 8/2019  Washington               19  -10.0  at Oregon State              7
11/17/2018  Oregon State             23  +33.5  at Washington               42
 9/30/2017  Washington               42  -27.5  at Oregon State              7
10/22/2016  Oregon State             17  +36.5  at Washington               41
11/21/2015  Washington               52  -15.0  at Oregon State              7
11/22/2014  Oregon State             13  + 6.5  at Washington               37
11/23/2013  Washington               69  - 1.5  at Oregon State             27
10/27/2012  Oregon State             17  - 3.5  at Washington               20
11/19/2011  Washington               21  - 2.0  at Oregon State             38
10/16/2010  Oregon State             34  + 2.0  at Washington               35
11/14/2009  Washington               21  +13.5  at Oregon State             48
10/18/2008  Oregon State             34  -16.0  at Washington               13
11/10/2007  Washington               23  + 5.0  at Oregon State             29
10/14/2006  Oregon State             27  + 9.0  at Washington               17
11/ 5/2005  Oregon State             18  - 4.0  at Washington               10
10/16/2004  Oregon State             29  - 6.0  at Washington               14
10/18/2003  Washington               38  +10.0  at Oregon State             17
11/ 9/2002  Oregon State             29  - 1.0  at Washington               41
11/10/2001  Washington               24  - 3.0  at Oregon State             49
10/ 7/2000  Oregon State             30  +10.0  at Washington               33
10/ 9/1999  Washington               47  - 2.5  at Oregon State             21
10/24/1998  Oregon State             34  +16.5  at Washington               35
10/25/1997  Washington               45  -21.5  at Oregon State             17
11/ 9/1996  Oregon State              3  +23.0  at Washington               42
 9/30/1995  Washington               26  - 7.5  at Oregon State             16
10/29/1994  Oregon State             10  +15.0  at Washington               24
11/ 6/1993  Washington               28  -14.0  at Oregon State             21
11/14/1992  Oregon State             16  +34.5  at Washington               45
11/16/1991  Washington               58  -43.5  at Oregon State              6

Oregon State QB Chance Nolan remains questionable. He sat the last 3 games.

Here’s a look at the way our model sees this game using 3 different time frame parameters.

Oregon State              60.5          35           
Washington                -4.0          31 full season data
  
Oregon State              60.5          36           
Washington                -4.0          24 last 4 games
  
Oregon State              60.5          35           
Washington                -4.0          32 last 7 games

The model takes into account who the teams have played in that stretch along with various other metrics.

As you can see, it’s an across the board sweep and we agree with the model here. Oregon State has a sound defense. Their rushing yards per attempt differential ranks 25th of all teams in action this week at +1 (wash #48 at +0.3). That stat alone can indicate a “live dog” scenario.

All indications here are that Oregon State is a live dog. They’ll have to overcome the Washington home crowd which no doubt will be hyped more than usual as it’s a Friday night affair, but it’s a chance for Oregon State to turn the tables and start a series winning streak of their own. They have the talent to do so as last years result also indicates.

Oregon State +4.5