Tennessee at Georgia CFB Pick with Analysis – 11-5

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In what is easily the most important college football game to date of the 2022 season, #1 Georgia will host #2 Tennessee this Saturday, November 5th. The Bulldogs are currently favored by -8.5 with a total of 66. Those odds are available at GTBets.

Historically this series is interesting in that there have been more lopsided scores than one might imagine, with each team taking turns beating up on the other, depending on the decade.

Over the last 12 years it’s been all Georgia. In that time span the Bulldogs hold a 12-2 series edge with the average score being 38-22. Georgia has won 5 straight and none of those games have been close. Last years final was 41-17.

The Vols have no doubt closed the gap but can they go on the road and pull the upset?

Here’s a look at their head to head history.

Head to Head

11/13/2021  Georgia                  41  -20.0  at Tennessee                17
10/10/2020  Tennessee                21  +12.5  at Georgia                  44
10/ 5/2019  Georgia                  43  -24.5  at Tennessee                14
 9/29/2018  Tennessee                12  +30.5  at Georgia                  38
 9/30/2017  Georgia                  41  - 9.0  at Tennessee                 0
10/ 1/2016  Tennessee                34  - 3.5  at Georgia                  31
10/10/2015  Georgia                  31  - 3.0  at Tennessee                38
 9/27/2014  Tennessee                32  +17.0  at Georgia                  35
10/ 5/2013  Georgia                  34  -10.5  at Tennessee                31
 9/29/2012  Tennessee                44  +14.0  at Georgia                  51
10/ 8/2011  Georgia                  20  - 2.5  at Tennessee                12
10/ 9/2010  Tennessee                14  +11.0  at Georgia                  41
10/10/2009  Georgia                  19  + 1.0  at Tennessee                45
10/11/2008  Tennessee                14  +12.5  at Georgia                  26
10/ 6/2007  Georgia                  14  + 1.5  at Tennessee                35
10/ 7/2006  Tennessee                51  - 2.5  at Georgia                  33
10/ 8/2005  Georgia                  27  + 3.0  at Tennessee                14
10/ 9/2004  Tennessee                19  +11.5  at Georgia                  14
10/11/2003  Georgia                  41  - 1.0  at Tennessee                14
10/12/2002  Tennessee                13  + 2.0  at Georgia                  18
10/ 6/2001  Georgia                  26  +12.0  at Tennessee                24
10/ 7/2000  Tennessee                10  + 4.5  at Georgia                  21
10/ 9/1999  Georgia                  20  +11.0  at Tennessee                37
10/10/1998  Tennessee                22  + 3.0  at Georgia                   3
10/11/1997  Georgia                  13  + 9.0  at Tennessee                38
10/12/1996  Tennessee                29  -13.5  at Georgia                  17
 9/ 9/1995  Georgia                  27  +12.5  at Tennessee                30
 9/10/1994  Tennessee                41  - 1.0  at Georgia                  23
 9/11/1993  Georgia                   6  + 7.5  at Tennessee                38
 9/12/1992  Tennessee                34  + 5.5  at Georgia                  31

 

prediction line off ypp def ypp y-per rush
ten 17 65- 11.3 19.2 1.6
ga 33 8 12.5 23.5 2.5

Once again we have included a little chart above that simply highlights some key stats. Specifically, yards per point and rushing yards differential. Why are these stats key? Simply because teams that rank high in these category win many more football games than they lose.

In those stat categories above, Tennessee and Georgia rank among the best in the nation. Often top 5. No worse than top 15.

The score prediction obviously favors Georgia in a big way. That certainly grabs our attention as the model takes into account many things. In fact we can change the time frame parameters to include only stats from say, the last 4 weeks or the last 7 weeks along with the entire season. No matter the time frame we use, Georgia wins by a large margin and covers every time.

But handicapping isn’t all mechanical. There’s a human element to it as well and we often disagree with our model. Such is the case here.

Tennessee has played the more difficult schedule. In fact when you look at Georgia’s schedule to date, it’s not all that impressive other than their opening week blowout over Oregon.

The Vols proved they can get up for big games in consecutive weeks by going on the road and blowing out LSU then returning home to upset Alabama. They also took apart a ranked Kentucky team last week in blowout fashion.

Our Pick 

There’s simply nothing to suggest that beating Georgia is an impossible task and there’s definitely nothing to suggest that the Vols can’t compete from start to finish making this a last team with the ball wins type of a game.

A sizable underdog in college football that has a legitimate shot at winning outright is one of the best bets you can make. You WILL win 55% of those bets over the long run. Will this particular game, this week, be a winner against the number? We hope so, because that’s the way we’re playing it. We’re simply playing the percentages. Go Vols!

Tennessee +8.5