Texas vs. Oklahoma Free CFB Pick ATS – 10-8

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texas vs. oklahoma cfb pick
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Texas and Oklahoma will hook up in the Red River Showdown this Saturday, October 8th in a rivalry game that rarely disappoints. The Sooners have won 4 in a row with one of those being the 2018 Big 12 Championship. Oddsmakers Have Texas favored by -7 this year with a total of 66.

Here’s a look at the head to head meetings between these two going back several years.

Head to Head

  
10/ 9/2021  Texas                    48  + 3.0  vs Oklahoma                 55
10/10/2020  Texas                    45  + 3.0  vs Oklahoma                 53
10/12/2019  Texas                    27  +11.0  vs Oklahoma                 34
12/ 1/2018  Texas                    27  + 8.0  vs Oklahoma                 39
10/ 6/2018  Texas                    48  + 7.0  vs Oklahoma                 45
10/14/2017  Texas                    24  + 9.0  vs Oklahoma                 29
10/ 8/2016  Texas                    40  +11.5  vs Oklahoma                 45
10/10/2015  Texas                    24  +16.5  vs Oklahoma                 17
10/11/2014  Texas                    26  +16.5  vs Oklahoma                 31
10/12/2013  Texas                    36  +12.0  vs Oklahoma                 20
10/13/2012  Texas                    21  + 3.5  vs Oklahoma                 63
10/ 8/2011  Texas                    17  +10.5  vs Oklahoma                 55
10/ 2/2010  Texas                    20  + 3.5  vs Oklahoma                 28
10/17/2009  Texas                    16  - 3.0  vs Oklahoma                 13
10/11/2008  Texas                    45  + 6.5  vs Oklahoma                 35
10/ 6/2007  Texas                    21  +10.0  vs Oklahoma                 28
10/ 7/2006  Texas                    28  - 3.5  vs Oklahoma                 10
10/ 8/2005  Texas                    45  -14.0  vs Oklahoma                 12
10/ 9/2004  Texas                     0  + 6.5  vs Oklahoma                 12
10/11/2003  Texas                    13  + 6.5  vs Oklahoma                 65
10/12/2002  Texas                    24  - 2.5  vs Oklahoma                 35
10/ 6/2001  Texas                     3  - 4.0  vs Oklahoma                 14
10/ 7/2000  Texas                    14  - 3.0  vs Oklahoma                 63
10/ 9/1999  Texas                    38  - 4.5  vs Oklahoma                 28
10/10/1998  Texas                    34  - 8.0  vs Oklahoma                  3
10/11/1997  Texas                    27  - 6.0  vs Oklahoma                 24
10/12/1996  Texas                    27  -22.0  vs Oklahoma                 30
10/14/1995  Texas                    24  + 2.0  vs Oklahoma                 24
10/ 8/1994  Texas                    17  + 4.0  vs Oklahoma                 10
10/ 9/1993  Texas                    17  +11.0  vs Oklahoma                 38
10/10/1992  Texas                    34  +10.5  vs Oklahoma                 24
10/12/1991  Texas                    10  + 6.0  vs Oklahoma                  7
10/13/1990  Texas                    14  + 8.5  vs Oklahoma                 13
  
   average outcome:
     Texas                   25.9  Oklahoma                30.4
     margin =   4.48
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Texas                   36.1  Oklahoma                40.9
     margin =   4.89
  
    54.17 % of games went Over
    (since        1995 )
  
   average total points per game =  56.24
   time-weighted average total   =  77.00
  
   the favorite  covered  40.63 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  59.38 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -1.91
  
   the favorite won SU    62.50 % of the time
  
   Texas                   covered  56.25 % of the time
   Oklahoma                covered  43.75 % of the time

Season to Date 

1  10/ 1  Oklahoma                 24  at  T.C.U.                   55    OV  69.5
    9/24  Kansas State             41  at  Oklahoma                 34    OV  53.0
    9/17  Oklahoma                 49  at  Nebraska                 14    UN  65.5
    9/10  Kent State                3  at  Oklahoma                 33    UN  72.5
    9/ 3  UTEP                     13  at  Oklahoma                 45    OV  57.5
  
   ***
  
   10/ 1  West Virginia            20  at  Texas                    38    UN  62.0
    9/24  Texas                    34  at  Texas Tech               37    OV  61.0
    9/17  UTSA                     20  at  Texas                    41    OV  57.0
    9/10  Alabama                  20  at  Texas                    19    UN  65.0
    9/ 3  Louisiana-Monroe         10  at  Texas                    52    UN  64.0

 

Are the Longhorns worthy of being installed a -7 point favorite in this spot? Our model seems to think so, predicting a Texas win by 9 to 11 points. But we’re allowed to disagree with the model, and we’re not so sure.

The Longhorns claim to fame this year is almost knocking off Alabama. Impressive, sure. But otherwise, they have a win last week over a mediocre West Virginia team, a win over a mediocre Texas Tech and then wins over La Monroe and UTSA.

The Sooners results are equally unimpressive. Two wins over cup cakes and then Nebraska, a close loss to Kansas State and last weeks debacle at TCU.

Texas does own the better rushing game currently but we can’t ignore the series history here. The Sooners would seem to be the more desperate of the two having lost back to back games. We’d be surprised if this wasn’t a back and forth high scoring affair as most of these are with the game decided late in the 4th.

We’ll take the Sooners +7 here in a game they could win straight up.

Oklahoma +7

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