NFL Picks ATS for Week 4 – 10-2-22

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Just a reminder to everyone that the NFL picks from the “Black Cat” are available each week here on the site. We’ll post them here this week but in the future here is the link.

 

Week 4

Disappointed in last week, I veered too much from the computer data when it actually spit out an incredibly strong week. I won’t make that mistake again! In more true black cat form, the underdogs went 66% while the favorites were 0-2. This week, I fearlessly post a slate of 9 games with 5 favorites! So I’ll win at least 4 underdog games….

13. Chicago +3 NY Giants (4 Stars)
After posting one of the most embarrassing losses in a string of embarrassing losses against the Cowboys, one might rightly think the Giants are poised to rebound against the lowly bears. But the stinging loss came with mounds of injuries, specifically every wide receiver on the team and every guy who covers the wide receivers on the other teams. It is so bad, many fantasy football experts are expecting Darnell Mooney to have a catch this week! This game is setup for the kind of 1950s-style ball that the Bears live for.
Bears 22, Giants 21

14. LA Chargers -5.5 Houston (3.5 Stars)
This does qualify as a rebound play. Statistically, it is hard to get to 5.5 on the road against a Texans team based on what we’ve seen so far from the “please plug me in” chargers. Why is Mike Williams smiling? Because he stands to be the only receiver of up to 400 yards from returning superstar Justin Herbert.
Chargers 29, Texans 20

15. Seattle +3.5 Detroit (3.5 Stars)
A good game to start everyone in fantasy football, as defense will be a non-factor. You wouldn’t expect fireworks with Gino vs. Goff but you’re gonna get them! And we’re on team GINO! If you aren’t sold on this game being a FF cheat code, consider that St. Brown will be praying from the sidelines.
Seahawks 28, Lions 27

16. San Francisco -1.5 LA Rams (3.5 Stars)
Garropolo is a winner, I think he has the most wins in NFL history even if he’s probably less wanted around the NFL than the 49er Qb who kneeled. I’m looking at the running game here and even though the 49ers running game is powered by a backup and a WR, it still seems more explosive and stable than whatever the heck is going on with the Rams and that waste of a 3rd round RB pick I spent in August.
49ers 21, Rams 16

17. Washington +3 Dallas (3.5 Stars)
Now you know I’m sticking with the computer this week when I recommend this hot mess of a game! Dallas has won the last 472 games over Washington, mostly by running the likes of Pollard and that broken down other guy down their throat. Will that happen again? Probably. We actually have slightly more confidence in Washington producing some passing yards and CeeDee Lamb dropping a critical throw and – remember – this IS a certified Black Cat UNDERDOG pick and those things are like gold. For all the people all pumped up about Cooper Rush, forget it. Both he and this offense still SUCK!
Commanders 20, Cowboys 19

18. Baltimore +3 Buffalo (3 Stars)
This figures to be a very competitive game, with a ton of offense both through the air and on the ground. History does not favor the Bills in close games, they haven’t won a close game in many opportunities (see “Allen didn’t get to touch the ball”). Lamar is Mr. Win Close Games. So I not only like the Ravens covering this, they may pull it out!
Ravens 27, Bills 26

19. Indianapolis -3.5 Tennessee (3 Stars)
In a battle of two of the best RBs today, the Titans are really having trouble getting their running game off the ground while Taylor should have a strong day.
Colts 21, Titans 15

20. Las Vegas -2.5 Denver (3 Stars)
While Denver’s offense should remain a bit of a puzzling hot mess, I think it is time for the Devonte Adams show to begin! If you are like me and start Derek Carr because you didn’t bother to draft anyone else, this may be your weekend. Finally the Raiders face an offense that even they can stop!
Raiders 26, Broncos 25

21. Pittsburgh -3.5 NY Jets (2.5 Stars)
FF Defense Rankings are drooling over the Steelers so much in this battle against Zach Wilson, I had to check if TJ Watt was back! He’s not, but the mistake-prone Jets should hand the ball over so readily even the Steelers O can’t screw this one up.
Steelers 25, Jets 19